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Referendum Blog: May 15

Referendum Blog: May 15

On Thursday, BBC1’s main bulletins put heavy weight on the warning by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that Brexit could lead to an economic downturn.  On Friday night, similar importance and prominence was afforded to equally strong ‘remain’ advocacy by former Prime Minister John Major and Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund.   BBC economics editor Kamal Ahmad, as in his report the previous day, left no doubt how important these warnings were.  He stated:

‘Another day in this referendum campaign and another major international organisation warns Britain about the economic risks of leaving the European Union. Of course, here in the Treasury, they are pretty pleased that the IMF has broadly backed George Osborne’s assessment and it’s not the last we are going to hear from the IMF. Just a few days before the referendum, they are going to produce a report which will talk about employment, house prices and the Brexit risk. It is thought it will be equally gloomy.’

It is of course, true that such organisations and their leaders seem to be lining up to attack the ‘out’ case, and there is no avoiding that in news terms. But there are also huge question marks why this should be. Have their efforts been encouraged and coordinated by the government? There is widesapread suspicion that it is. And is it because – as the Guido website unearthed – they are all actually in the pay of the EU? These are legitimate questions to ask, but these possibilities and such exploration does not feature in the BBC reporting. On Friday night, Ahmad simply reported the Lagarde claims; his curiosity did not extend any further, and his main intent was to stress how importantly negative against the ‘out’  case the claims were.

The overall report contained counter opinion against John Major’s intervention from the Conservative minister Dominic Raab, and in reaction to the Lagarde claims from Priti Patel, also a government minister. But their responses were no more than about 50 words each. Raab said it was irresponsible not to talk about immigration in the light of new statistics, and Patel that the IMF figures could not be taken at face value e vital to talk. By contrast, newsreader Fiona Bruce said this about Sir John Major’s claims:

Sir John Major has launched a stinging attack on senior Conservatives heading the campaign to leave the EU. The former Tory Prime Minister said the Justice Secretary Michael Gove should be embarrassed and ashamed of his anti-EU rhetoric. And he called on Boris Johnson and former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith to apologise for peddling false figures

Reporter Eleanor Garnier added that this was:

‘… a big name making a big intervention. And making his own case for staying in the EU, he attacked claims made by Tory colleagues, Boris Johnson, the former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith, and the Justice Secretary Michael Gove, that leaving the EU could save millions of pounds a week.

JM: Those who make such demonstrably false claims, knowingly do so, need to apologise that they have got their figures so badly wrong and stop peddling a clear-cut untruth.

EG: And he warned colleagues who he says are raising fear and prejudice with their arguments over immigration, that it’s a treacherous road to go down. JM: Some of the Brexit leaders morph into Ukip and turn to their default position, immigration. This is their trump card. I urge them to take care. This is dangerous territory that if handled carelessly, can open up long-term divisions in our country.

EG: This is a significant intervention from the former Prime Minister. He’s naming people with ambitions to one day lead the Conservative party as reckless, and as this referendum campaign goes on the Tory-on-Tory attacks are getting more personal. The question – how united can and will the party be when all this is over?’

After Raab’s contribution (which was included without any other explanation), she concluded:

He rarely makes interventions, but this decision he says is final, and he’ll be hoping people are listening.

Fiona Bruce said about the Lagarde/IMF contribution:

‘Another powerful voice arguing today for the UK to remain in the EU was the head of the International Monetary Fund. Christine Lagarde warned it could be at least “pretty bad”, and at worst, “very, very bad” if the UK pulls out. She said it would hit British growth, investment and house prices.’

Kamal Ahmad then went on to say:

‘Step-by-step, the government believes the economic case is being made. Today, another expert and another grim warning.

GEORGE OSBORNE: A particular welcome to Christine Lagarde and her team. KA: The IMF argued house prices could fall, borrowing costs increase, and the government may have to raise taxes and cut public services further.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE International Monetary Fund: Thank you very much, Chancellor.

KA: I asked Christine Lagarde for the outlook if Britain left the EU.

CL: The consequences would be negative, if the UK was to leave the European Union. It would impact people’s life. So that means, higher prices. Less growth means less jobs, so higher unemployment.

KA: Does the Treasury influence you? Are you pushed by George Osborne to be as bleak as you can be about the effects of Britain leaving the European Union?

CL: The IMF does not get pushed around. What we do is we study their numbers. We assess the validity. We talk to many other people.’

Ahmad then included the comment about the importance of Lagarde’s intervention already noted at the beginning of the blog above, and then had a soundbite from a ComRes pollster, who said:

Any individual voice or report or organisation is unlikely to have a major impact that we will see in the polls tomorrow. It is more a cumulative effect, that they add up, the narrative grows and it makes voters stop and think just before they go and vote on referendum day.

This carefully chosen and edited comment added to the importance of what Lagarde and the IMF had said.

Overall, therefore, the BBC’s flagship television bulletin put heavy emphasis on the warnings from Sir John Major and Christine Lagarde, and both the newsreader narrative and the respective correspondent reports amplified strongly their ‘remain’ messages.  There were clear mentions in both sequences about Vote Leave opposition, but this was afforded much less weight than the ‘remain’ contributions. Of course, there is no requirement for every edition of a daily programme to be balanced – that can be achieved cumulatively according to the news agenda. But over two consecutive nights the main BBC bulletin put very strong weight on ‘remain’ warnings. On both occasions, there was only minimal effort to explore counter and no attempt to explore counter arguments. Equally, there was no inclusion of material that aired whether the Lagarde/Major/Carney warnings were being orchestrated or influenced by the EU itself. These items do not demonstrate conclusively in themselves that the BBC is biased in favour of the ‘remain’ case, but taken with other evidence on this site, suggest strongly that there is serious cause for concern about the way the ‘out’ case is being under-reported or downplayed, and about how the ‘remain’ case is being deliberately and systematically amplified.

This is the full transcript of the sequence:

 

 Transcript of BBC1 ‘News at Ten’ 13th May 2016, EU Referendum, 10.06pm

Introduction

FIONA BRUCE:   Also tonight: The gloves are off: Sir John Major tells senior Tories they should be ashamed and embarrassed by their fearmongering over the EU.

Main Story

FB:         Sir John Major has launched a stinging attack on senior Conservatives heading the campaign to leave the EU. The former Tory Prime Minister said the Justice Secretary Michael Gove should be embarrassed and ashamed of his anti-EU rhetoric. And he called on Boris Johnson and former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith to apologise for peddling false figures. The Leave campaign responded ‘the public will decide whether to stay in the EU, not politicians.’ Eleanor Garnier reports.

ELEANOR GARNIER:        He’s a big name making a big intervention. With less than six weeks until the vote, the former Prime Minister’s gots a warning for the Conservatives on the EU.

SIR JOHN MAJOR Former Prime Minister:             A quarter of a century ago, it bitterly divided my party.

EG:        And making his own case for staying in the EU, he attacked claims made by Tory colleagues, Boris Johnson, the former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith, and the Justice Secretary Michael Gove, that leaving the EU could save millions of pounds a week.

JM:        Those who make such demonstrably false claims, knowingly do so, need to apologise that they have got their figures so badly wrong and stop peddling a clear-cut untruth.

EG:        And he warned colleagues who he says are raising fear and prejudice with their arguments over immigration, that it’s a treacherous road to go down.

JM:        Some of the Brexit leaders morph into Ukip and turn to their default position, immigration. This is their trump card. I urge them to take care. This is dangerous territory that if handled carelessly, can open up long-term divisions in our country.

EG:        This is a significant intervention from the former Prime Minister. He’s naming people with ambitions to one day lead the Conservative party as reckless, and as this referendum campaign goes on the Tory-on-Tory attacks are getting more personal. The question – how united can and will the party be when all this is over?

DOMINIC RAAB Conservative, Vote Leave:           We have this week had the official statistics showing a massive underestimate in the amount of immigration from the EU into the UK. I think it would be irresponsible not to be talking about that, because there are issues people care about. The pressure on jobs and wages, the impact on the NHS and housing.

EG:        He rarely makes interventions, but this decision he says is final, and he’ll be hoping people are listening. Eleanor Garnier, BBC News, Westminster.

FB:         Another powerful voice arguing today for the UK to remain in the EU was the head of the International Monetary Fund. Christine Lagarde warned it could be at least “pretty bad”, and at worst, “very, very bad” if the UK pulls out. She said it would hit British growth, investment and house prices. Vote Leave campaigners say the IMF has been wrong before about the British economy and is wrong again. Our Economics Editor Kamal Ahmed reports.

KAMAL AHMED:              Step-by-step, the government believes the economic case is being made. Today, another expert and another grim warning.

GEORGE OSBORNE:        A particular welcome to Christine Lagarde and her team.

KA:        The IMF argued house prices could fall, borrowing costs increase, and the government may have to raise taxes and cut public services further.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE International Monetary Fund:          Thank you very much, Chancellor.

KA:        I asked Christine Lagarde for the outlook if Britain left the EU.

CL:         The consequences would be negative, if the UK was to leave the European Union. It would impact people’s life. So that means, higher prices. Less growth means less jobs, so higher unemployment.

KA:        Does the Treasury influence you? Are you pushed by George Osborne to be as bleak as you can be about the effects of Britain leaving the European Union?

CL:         The IMF does not get pushed around. What we do is we study their numbers. We assess the validity. We talk to many other people.

KA:        Another day in this referendum campaign and another major international organisation warns Britain about the economic risks of leaving the European Union. Of course, here in the Treasury, they are pretty pleased that the IMF has broadly backed George Osborne’s assessment and it’s not the last we are going to hear from the IMF. Just a few days before the referendum, they are going to produce a report which will talk about employment, house prices and the Brexit risk. It is thought it will be equally gloomy. Looking for votes, the Leave campaign on the road today with a message that the IMF had been wrong before and was wrong now.

PRITI PATEL MP Conservative, Vote Leave:           I don’t think we can take their forecasts at face value because of their background and also, on the basis that our economy is successful right now. I believe that if we vote to leave the European Union, Britain has a brighter, more secure and more prosperous future outside of the EU.

KA:        Shoreham on the south coast, here to ask the question, is anyone listening as everyone from the Bank of England to the IMF warns against leaving the EU?

VOX POP FEMALE:          Yeah, I would listen to that information and take it on board. It would help me make a decision.

VOX POP MALE:              Constantly, you are getting different information from one side to another. As a personal thing, no, I would not take any notice of it.

KA:        The governor of the Bank of England, the head of the IMF. There is evidence the economy is high up in the minds of undecided voters.

TOM MLUDZINSKI Director of Political Polling, ComRes:   Any individual voice or report or organisation is unlikely to have a major impact that we will see in the polls tomorrow. It is more a cumulative effect, that they add up, the narrative grows and it makes voters stop and think just before they go and vote on referendum day.

KA:        There is more to the UK economy than the referendum. The IMF said there were other long-term risks, high levels of household debt and low productivity. They will still be problems, however Britain votes on June 23. Kamal Ahmed, BBC News.

FB:         The BBC’s Reality Check team has been examining Christine Lagarde’s comments, and getting to the facts behind the claims on both sides of the referendum debate. You can find their work at bbc.co.uk/realitycheck.

FB:         There are signs tonight that the European Union’s efforts to stem the migrant crisis are beginning to have a significant impact. Numbers arriving from Turkey onto the Greek islands are down around 90% in April compared with the previous month, according to the EU border agency Frontex. It follows a deal struck between the EU and Turkey. But as our chief correspondent Gavin Hewitt now reports from Izmir, the deal is coming under pressure.

GAVIN HEWITT:              These are the Turkish beaches from where tens of thousands of refugees left for their perilous journey to Europe. Today, all that remains are discarded clothes. Almost no refugees are making the crossing to Greece. But the deal between Turkey and the EU to solve the migrant crisis is in danger of collapsing. Go into the fields near the Turkish coast close to Greece and you find Syrian refugees like Murat, who once dreamt of going to Europe but has given up. The Turkish-EU deal signed in March has all but blocked the migrant trail.

MURAD Syrian Refugee (translated) The sea border with Greece is now closed. If someone wants to go to Europe, they cannot. I did want to go, but now I can’t.

GH:        The Turkish coast guard patrols are much more rigorous. Just two months ago, 8,000 refugees crossed here in one month. So far in May, the numbers are around 300. And for those who make it to Greece, the route north through the Balkans is lined with fences and riot police.

PIHRIL ERCHOBAN Director, Association for Solidarity with Refugees:       There is no possibility to move further from Greece, and in Greece, the movement from the islands to the mainland became impossible now.

GH:        So, in Turkey, the tables where the smugglers did their deals are almost empty and the shops can’t sell their life jackets. The Turkish government says it’s honoured its part of the deal.

MUSTAPHA TOPRAK Governor of Izmir (translated) If the refugees go outside the cities where they’re registered, they’re told to go back. If they try to reach the coast and escape, the police will catch them.

GH:        The easing of the refugee crisis depends on a controversial deal between Turkey and the EU. Turkey clamping down on the migrants, in exchange for visa-free travel to much of Europe. But the European Parliament is insisting that first, Turkey must carry out further reforms. Turkey says it has done enough and the whole deal is looking fragile. So there is a risk of the migrant crisis returning. The developments are being followed closely in Germany, where most of the previous refugees went, and by the referendum campaigns in Britain. Gavin Hewitt, BBC News, Izmir.

 

 

 

 

Photo by Chatham House, London

Craig Byers:  Here is the news. BBC bias revealed hour by hour

Craig Byers: Here is the news. BBC bias revealed hour by hour

Thursday was ‘the big day’ at the BBC, and yesterday morning’s Today was all over Mr Whittingdale’s Charter Review report.

Did the BBC treat the story impartially?

Well, on Today there was Lib Dem peer Lord Lester QC sticking up for the BBC. And Labour’s Tessa Jowell sticking up for the BBC. And former BBC, Sky and ITV employee Professor Lis Howell half-criticising and half-sticking up for the BBC. And BBC presenter Nick Robinson not exactly firing, in ‘devil’s advocate’-style, on all impartial cylinders either.

They did have the SNP’s John Nicholson, for ‘balance’ though, demanding a Scottish News at Six – and getting a rough ride from Mishal Husain in the process. ‘Who wants that?’ was Mishal’s basic point. (A fair point, probably).

Impartial? Hardly.

And then came  The World at One on BBC Radio 4. And that was even worse.

After a short review of events in Parliament came a discussion between the BBC’s Martha Kearney and Steve Hewlett of the Guardian/BBC Radio 4’s Media Show, which suggested the Charter review wasn’t as bad as the BBC and its supporters feared, but that there are still issues of concern for them.

Then came a much shorter interview with Peter Bone MP, a BBC critic. It was the ‘balancing item’ -even though it lasted barely more more than a minute (the shortest interview by far).

Astonishingly, Martha forcefully stopped him in his tracks as as soon as he raised what he described as his “main concern”: BBC pro-EU bias. Martha clearly wasn’t going there for anything in the world. Realising that, Mr Bone just laughed.

Then came Jesse Norman MP saying that the government’s plan is great and the BBC is great.

Then came Labour-supporting former BBC Trust boss Sir Michael Lyons (not that Martha even hinted at such a thing) attacking the Government for going too far but saying that there is a problem with BBC bias: bias against Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn. A somewhat-startled-sounding Martha Kearney not only didn’t cut him off when he raised it (in contrast to how she treated Peter Bone when he tried to air his concerns about pro-EU BBC bias) but actually went on to press his pro-Labour ‘BBC bias’ point with Lord Hall.

And Lord Hall was the big WATO interview.

He didn’t agree with Sir Michael about the BBC’s anti-Corbyn bias (you won’t be surprised to hear), saying that the BBC is impartial (you also won’t be surprised to hear) and that the BBC brings “light to controversy”.

Lord Hall sounded pleased with what the Government has announced. The BBC’s Martha (gently) pressed him largely from a pro-BBC, Wolf Hall director Peter Kosminsky-type standpoint rather than an anti-BBC Andrew Bridgen MP-type standpoint.

And that was that: Lots of pro-BBC types having their say, plus (very briefly) Peter Bone.

Impartial? Hardly.

Meanwhile over on BBC One’s News at One bulletin we got more of the same, plus three items on the EU referendum: Mark Carney of the Bank of England’s dire warnings of the economic dangers of voting to leave the EU came first. A little later came the Vote Leave/ITV spat over whether Nigel Farage should be involved in a TV debate with David Cameron. And finally, immediately before the sports news (i.e. as the last ‘serious’ news item), came the news that the ONS has finally conceded that immigration from the EU has been massively under-represented in the government’s official figures (not that the short BBC news item put it like that) – a point that many people have been saying might well give a huge boost to the Leave campaign.

So why did BBC One choose to ‘bury’ that story as a very short new item near the end of its lunch time news bulletin?

Wasn’t that Peter Bone’s point being proved?

Impartial? Hardly.

And then came BBC’s News at Six.

BBC One’s News at Six began with another pro-Leave point: Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s dire warnings about a vote to leave the EU:

A warning from the Bank of England: Leaving the EU could trigger a recession.

The bulletin’s reporting was ‘impartial’ in the BBC sense, in that:

  • (a) the bulletin kept using words like “stark” and “strong” to describe the governor’s comments.
  • (b) the BBC’s economics editor Kamal Ahmed, after laying out Mr Carney’s anti-Brexit case in detail, said that “many economists agree with the Bank’s gloomy prognosis” and then featured one such economist doing just that…
  • ‘…balanced’ by (c) a clip of Norman Lamont saying, very briefly, that Mr Carney is wrong…
  • and then (d) BBC political reporter Alex Forsyth setting the context by saying that Mr Carney’s intervention is “undoubtedly a boost” to the Remain campaign as Mr Carney is “a senior, credible figure once again warning in no uncertain terms of the economic risks of leaving.

ITV’s early evening news bulletin also led with that pro-Leave point and, like Kamal Ahmed, ITV’s deputy political editor Chris Ship also laid out the governor’s concerns in some detail.

Unlike the BBC, however, Chris Ship also said “the truth is” that the economic forecasts aren’t great at the moment whichever way we vote, and his ‘talking heads’ included two people who disagreed with Mr. Carney: John Redwood and Wetherspoons boss Tim Martin – both making substantive points against the BoE governor.

ITV struck me as taking its ‘impartiality’ responsibilities far more seriously than the BBC there. The BBC felt outrageously one-sided in comparison.

And after giving us its Mark Carney coverage ITV then moved straight onto the EU immigration question – for many Brexiteers the big story of the day – and those ONS figures with Chris Ship giving us James Brokenshire on one side and Liam Fox on the other, plus talk of economists claiming immigration is good for us on one side and Leave supporters saying we can’t control our border on the side, plus mention of the “true scale” of immigration and the figures taking us into “unprecedented” territory.

The BBC, in contrast, didn’t move straight onto the EU immigration story. It moved on to other stories instead. And we had to wait until nearly the end of the bulletin again for the EU immigration story to appear. And, again, it was given short shrift.

The BBC newsreader, George Aligiah,  introduced it as being a case of Leave campaigners “saying” and the ONS “clarifying”. It’s “quite complicated”, said George. Yes, it’s “not very easy”, said the BBC’s Tom Symonds. Tom said that “Eurosceptics say” it’s an underestimate but “the nation’s number-crunchers” have “tried to explain it today” as being just a matter of short-term migrants. He elaborated somewhat on the the ONS’s explanation, explaining their case in a tone of patient reasonableness. Then he said: Eurosceptics say this, the government says that.

‘BBC impartiality’ duly fulfilled. Story duly downplayed. For those who think that the government shamelessly ‘managed’ this story today (the ONS figures being released on the day the BBC was fixating on itself), this might suggest the government was ‘aided and abetted’ by the BBC here.

Is ITV biased? Is the BBC biased?

On the strength of this I’m definitely going with the latter.

Maybe the Charter review should have focused more on that.

 

This article first appeared on The Conservative Woman

Photo by Ben Sutherland

Referendum Blog: May 13

Referendum Blog: May 13

DOUBLE BIAS: Yesterday’s coverage by the BBC of stories related to the EU referendum showed deep bias against the Brexit case. On immigration there was bias by emission, and on economics there was bias by exaggeration and by not including the Brexit side sufficiently

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, elected to warn – on the basis of internal modelling – that if the UK voted to exit the EU, it could lead to a ‘technical recession’. This led the BBC1 bulletins at 6 and 10pm.  Economics editor Kamal Ahmad placed heavy stress on the importance of the warning and concluded that Carney and the Bank of England’s gloom was shared by many other leading economists and economic forecasters.  There were brief mentions at the beginning of the report that supporters of exit contested the claims, and there was a short clip of former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont stating that. But there could be no doubt that in the BBC’s estimation, this was a game-changing information. The focus was on showing that increasing numbers of authoritative figures were warning against Brexit, and that the exit side’s response was inadequate and limited.

In the same bulletins, another story that was relevant to the referendum debate was totally downplayed. Yesterday, the Daily Mail was among numerous news outlets reporting that the Office of National Statistics had released figures that confirmed that immigration from the EU to the UK was up to three times previous estimates. The report included this:

Former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith said the estimate showed migration was ‘running out of control’ and accused the government of trying to bury the news under other announcements.

‘The White Paper on BBC reforms was published today and David Cameron is hosting an international anti-corruption summit in London. They put it out on a day when they also put out something in the hope that you at the BBC will say ‘oh, we’ve got to really report the BBC’ and other bits they’re piling out. I’ve been in government long enough to know how these things are done,’ Mr Duncan Smith said.

His forecast proved to be correct. The heavy focus of BBC reporting yesterday (as well as on the Mark Carney comments) was on its own future, as is reported here. On BBC1 in the 6pm and 10pm bulletins, mention of the ONS figures was confined to a couple of sentences, and on the website, the main report on the figures here was focused on saying, in effect, that the claims by figures such as Ian Duncan Smith and John Redwood (who made similar points to IDS in the House of Commons) could be totally discounted because the ONS report dealt with temporary immigrants only.

Overall, the contrast between the handling of the Carney and immigration stories could not have been greater. The former was stoked up to the maximum extent so that the economic forecasting was elevated to major importance to show that Brexit was a dangerous option. The latter was heavily downplayed to the extent that the claims of Brexit campaigners were effectively rubbished on an official basis by the Corporation. Such efforts by the BBC to downplay the impact of EU immigration have been a constant feature of BBC reporting for many years, as previous News-watch reports have shown.

An exchange on the Today programme’s Business Update this morning illustrated the extent to which effort s are being made by the BBC to show that Carney’s warning should be taken seriously. This is the interview in full:

 

Transcript of BBC Radio 4, ‘Today’, 13th May 2016, Business Update, 7.19am

JOHN HUMPHRYS:          Is Europe growing? I mean, the European economy, I mean specifically the Eurozone economy, and that matters.  Lucy?

LUCY BURTON:  Yes, we’ve got figures on the Eurozone economy later today, and of course they’re important figures to look at, because it gives us an update on its health.  Last month flash estimates revealed GDP increased by 0.6% in the Eurozone, 0.5% in the wider EU. Well Dr Peter Westaway is the chief European economist from Vanguard Asset Management, he’s with us now, good morning.

DR PETER WESTAWAY:  Good morning.

LB:         What do we expect to see today and why?

PW:       I think we’ll probably see a repeat of the 0.6 number, when you get these second estimates they tended not to be changed very often.  If it is changed there is a possibility it will be downgraded, people were a bit surprised by the initial numbers and there’ve been some weak industrial production numbers out yesterday which could, could weaken it.  But, but broadly speaking I think we’ll see the same picture.

LB:         And one of the big questions people have been asking is whether the ECB is doing enough to support growth in the Eurozone, or whether it’s really run out of options.

PW:       Yes, it’s difficult to say.  I mean they’re, they’re really doing as much as they can at the moment, they’re now implementing quantitative easing, they’ve started buying, they’re going to start buying corporate bonds as well as government bonds in June, they cut interest rates into negative territory which was a big surprise at the time, they’ll probably not want to do any more of that, so . . . at the moment we’re in wait-and-see mode to see how effective that is, but . . . the jury’s out on whether they’ll need to do more.  Helicopter money is being bandied about as a possibility, that’s, that’s effectively printing money and giving it to people, which . . . I don’t think we’re going to see that in Europe, but it’s been talked about.

LB:         And of course, talking about growth, yesterday, the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said that’s something we can forget about if there is a vote to leave the EU. Now just how solid an estimate can that be, because, of course, it’s never happened before?

PW:       No it’s, it’s really speculating about the unknown, but I think, to be fair to Mark Carney yesterday, most commentators have been saying that if there were a vote to leave the EU it would have a major impact on volatility in markets, just because of the uncertainty that it would engender.  And indeed, we’re already seeing a little bit of softening in the numbers, simply because of that uncertainty . . . uncertainty already happening ahead of the referendum.

LB:         And the MPC, which is the Bank body that sets interest rates said it’s going to keep rates at present at the historic low of 0.5% – but they did say they’re ready to take whatever action is needed following the referendum.  Now, briefly, what does that mean?

PW:       Well, what’s interesting about the UK outlook at the moment is that we really are coming up to a fork in the road on June 23. I think if there is a vote to leave the EU it’s pretty likely that rates are going to stay low for a long time, they could even be cut again.  On the other hand, if we vote to stay in, then I think it’s entirely likely that the UK economy could see a bit of a rebound, we might even see interest rates rising by the end of this year.  So it’s a real binary situation at the moment.

LB:         Thank you very much, Dr Peter Westaway from Vanguard Asset Management.

 

Photo by Images George Rex

Referendum Blog: May 7

Referendum Blog: May 7

PEACE MYTH (CONTINUED): The concluding part of Newsnight’s European Dream series, presented by Gabriel Gatehouse, confirmed that this was based entirely on the EU’s own roseate version of its history. In reference to Robert Schuman and Jean Monnet, the EU’s chosen founding fathers, he declared at the beginning of part three:

GABRIEL GATEHOUSE: Out of the ruins of war arose a vision of Europe.

ROBERT SCHUMAN 1950: It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.

GG: The founding fathers dreamt of ever closer union.

GEORGES BERTHOIN Jean Monnet’s Chief of Staff: All governments wanted to remain half free.

GG: The goal was peace. But also prosperity. What’s become of the European dream?

In the analysis that followed, Gatehouse explored the problems of the euro and described how it had helped Germany to achieve export-led growth but caused acute misery in Greece. He pointed out that the UK had opted out and the euro, and suggested that the current ‘rift’ within the EU was based on that Germany embraced enthusiastically the single currency (and the creation of the European Union at Maastricht), while the UK did not; there, it had ‘split parties’. He concluded:

It’s been more than 65 years since Europe set out upon a journey that has led to today’s complex union of 28 member states. But from the very beginning the founding fathers identified one country as key to the European project.

GEORGES BERTHOIN: We wanted to give Germany a path to recovering their sovereignty, with us, not against us. Making sure that the German recovery would not become a threat, but an asset. And this is what happened. It just happened that the most powerful country in Europe believes in Europe, the European dream.

GG: And so we are back where we were at the beginning of our series…Whatever you think about the post-war European project, its greatest achievement surely is this: that it does now seem inconceivable for any member of the union to take up arms against another. If the European dream is peace then the EU has succeeded. But as Europe struggles to find common responses to the crises of the 21st-century, it’s clear: the EU is today about more than peace. The question is, how much more? That’s the issue that now divides this continent.

So in Gatehouse’s book, the EU has unquestionably been a success in its primary purpose: the generating and maintaining peace. As noted in the previous blog on this series, this is pure EU propaganda. The reality is that Jean Monnet’s goal, as first expressed in the 1920s, was the pulling together – at any price – of the European countries under an undemocratic supranational authority (what became the Commission). He and his cohort wanted above all the creation of a utopian, socialist Europe. They saw that framing this is the name of ‘peace’ would make such an idea difficult, if not impossible, to resist. The corollary is that anyone who challenges the need for the EU is putting peace at risk.

Photo by Karva Javi

Referendum Blog: May 6

Referendum Blog: May 6

MORE HISTORICAL BIAS:  Newsnight has been looking this week at the history of the EU in a three-part series called The European Dream.  As in other similar programmes – Europe Them or Us on BBC2, and The Inquiry on the World Service – it was pro-EU propaganda closely mirroring myths projected by the EU itself.

Gabriel Gatehouse claimed that the moves towards what became the EU were led in 1950 by a man who had a vision, Jean Monnet, who ‘in the broken remains of post war Europe’ set that vision ‘in motion’ by working with the French foreign minister, Robert Schuman.   He said the idea was ‘to bind the economies of Europe so tightly that war would become impossible’.

Gatehouse also maintained that his goal was ‘a continent prosperous and at peace’ and that Monnet and Scuman took the first steps towards ‘de facto solidarity’. He then spoke to Georges Berthoin, who was said to have been with Monnet as the plans for what became the EU were put together. Berthoin amplified the EU myths. He said that the ‘dream was to make peace among European countries stable and credible’; and that the aim was ‘not only to rebuild Europe but also to modernise Europe’.

Outside this EU version of its history, for example in The Great Deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North, a very different picture emerges.  It is true that Jean Monnet played probably a crucial role in founding the Iron and Steel Confederation – the body that laid the foundation stones for The Treaty of Rome in 1957 –  but his motivation is strongly challenged in other sources.

First, Monnet’s vision was not formed after 1945. He had been advocating European unity since at least 1917, and his ideas were rooted in socialist Utopianism.  Second, his methodology was based entirely on ruthless realpolitik rather than starry-eyed idealism. At the heart of his mission was the creation of a federal Europe. A crucial part of his plans was a supranational body that took away powers from national governments. He wanted that body to be run for the benefit only of ‘Europe’ by civil servants, and to be outside the democratic process.

Second, the reality was that in 1950, Monnet’s plan was only adopted because France, Germany and the United States could not agree how to move forward towards a more harmonious economic future. Monnet pitched his plan for the Iron and Steel Confederation into a policy vacuum, but it was carefully phrased so that the true intent was disguised. Schuman adopted the plan out of desperation rather than ideological desire.

The UK – then under the socialist Attlee government – was kept in the dark until the last minute, and when it did grasp what was being proposed, immediately said it could not support Monnet’s plan. The Cabinbet was deeply alarmed that it presented a huge threat to British sovereignty, and that it would severely compromise national security to hand over control of the iron and steel industries (then employing more than 1million Britons) to an unelected supranational body.

Gatehouse, of course, did not have time to go into such detail. But his version of EU history glossed over vital facts and presented simplistically the EU version of its own history. At a time of intense debate about the UK’s role in the EU, this was serious bias in that he presented a picture of a benign EU only there because its purpose was to create and maintain peace.

 

The transcript of the first programme is below:

PART ONE: EVER CLOSER UNION, 3 May, 10.43pm

EVAN DAVIS:      Well we all know that while this Thursday is important, there is another vote coming along on Thursday, June 23rd, which will have a big shape on party politics too. To help you think about the EU, we’re taking a step back this week, with three films that look at the grand vision of the EU founding fathers, and what has been achieved. The themes of peace and prosperity were to be delivered by among other things, ever closer union, free movement of people and monetary union. How’s it going? Well, we sent our reporter Gabriel Gatehouse in search of the European dream.

GABRIEL GATEHOUSE:   If the European Union has a birthplace, then it is here. In this little cottage in a woodland west of Paris. If the EU has a founding father then it is this man. Jean Monnet. In the broken remains of post-war Europe, together with a trusted circle of advisers, over coffee and cognac and fireside chats, they dreamed of a continent prosperous and at peace. Jean Monnet had a vision in this house. And from here he set the whole European project in motion. But what has become of that original vision? Over the next three nights we’re going to be asking what state of health is the European dream in today? (TITLE CARD: THE EUROPEAN DREAM Part One: Ever Closer Union.) Jean Monnet had an idea. To bind the economies of Europe so tightly that war would become impossible. He took his plan to the French Foreign Minister. Together they formulated the Schuman Declaration.

ROBERT SHCHUMAN 1950:           Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.

GG:        Those early Europe builders began by pooling production of coal and steel, it was the first step towards that de facto solidarity. It would lead, they hoped, to a federation of Europe. There aren’t many of that generation left today, but in an apartment in the 17th arrondissement of Paris, we found one. Georges Berthoin is the last surviving member of Jean Monnet’s original cabinet at the European Coal and Steel Community .It was the first institution out of which would grow the European Union.

GEORGES BERTHOIN Jean Monnet’s Chief of Staff:            The dream was to make peace among European countries stable and credible. Then there was another element, the element was prosperity. So the problem was not only to rebuild Europe but to modernise Europe and in this respect we were looking at the example of the United States of America and especially the size of the market.

GG:        Peace and prosperity, that was the goal. Five years later, six countries would sign the Treaty of Rome, establishing the European Economic Community. But the ambition was for a much closer union.

GB:         The Schuman Declaration was the first step towards a European federation. When we started, we thought at the time that we were going to start something and we thought at the time that we were going to accede to all things including political development, within ten years.

GG:        And so it happened that France and Germany formed the central axis of a European Union. And they enjoyed decades of peace and prosperity. A de facto solidarity among member nations. This is Breisach on the Rhine in Germany. Across the river, Neuf-Brisach in France. The French built these fortifications to guard against attacks from the German side. These two towns that saw three wars in 70 years are now the heartland of the European Union. Here then are two towns from opposite banks of the Rhine. They are living together in peace, their citizens can travel freely backwards and forwards across this bridge. And whatever side they happen to find themselves on, they can pay for stuff in a common currency. In so many ways this is exactly what the European project has always hoped to achieve. Over the decades Europe brought with it all sorts of benefits. Jobs, common rights and protections for workers, but you don’t have to dig very deep here to discover that the river still divides. On the French side, around Neuf-Brisach, there were once many factories. This one used to produce pistons for the European car industry. But in 2013 high labour costs forced it to close.

FABIENT SIMON Demolition worker:        Taxes in France are too high. Labour costs are too high. That’s why businesses here are moving to Eastern Europe.

GG:        Unemployment in this part of France is around 10% and rising. GDP is well below the European average. For these French workers overseeing the demolition of their own factory, the EU today means seeing their jobs move to new member states in Eastern Europe. There was a dream, a European dream, in the 1950s, 1960s, about peace and prosperity. Do you think that dream is still alive?

DOMINIQUE GERBER: Demolition Worker:             I think no, peace is here in Europe, but prosperity I think no. In Germany I think a little prosperity but here in France, no.

GG:        Indeed, back across the river in German Breisach, they have full employment. The citizens of this region, Baden Wurtenberg, are among the richest in the EU. Just up the road from Breisach, we stumble across what appears to be the most pro-European place on the continent. Is this the stuff that dreams are made of? Welcome to Europa Park. Meet Euro Mouse, the mascot of this Europe in microcosm. Nestled among the roller-coasters are many of the member states. Scandinavia, Portugal, Greece, which includes Pegasus, Cassandra’s curse, and the flight of Icarus. There is even a British section. Black cabs, fast-food, and Shakespeare. Who knew the EU could be such family fun? Which is your favourite bit of the park?

VOX POP FEMALE:           Our favourite bit is Scandinavia, I think. Scandinavia, all right. The wooden roller-coasters. I like England, but the thing is you haven’t got a lot of variety.

GG:        The history of Europa Park reads like a sort of German industrial fairy tale. It was founded by the Mack family, stalwarts of German manufacturing since the late 18th century. The park opened its doors in 1975, inspired by the vision of a United Europe.

MICHAEL MACK Europa Park We chose Europe and we think it was the best way to go, even though nobody believed that that time Europe would be as big as it is today.

GG:        As much of Europe struggles with an economic crisis, in Germany the dream of prosperity still burns brightly. Today nearly half the park’s workers are from other EU nations.

MM:      We are growing really fast. We are about to open a water park in 2018. We need another 700 employees, so it is quite difficult because the unemployment rate is so low in this area.

GG:        You cannot find the workers?

MM:      You cannot find the workers.

GG:        Despite Europe’s economies pulling in different directions its nations are today united in peace. Back on the road, we drive through Verdun. Verdun is to the French what The Somme is to the British. 100 years ago hundreds of thousands of young men lost their lives in these fields. Along the roads that wind through Europe’s heartland, history lurks around every bend. Strasbourg. The city was once fought over. It is now at the heart of the European project. The home of the European Parliament. Throughout the EU’s development, from its beginnings in coal and steel, through the Treaty of Rome, the single European act, the Maastricht Treaty, the direction of travel has been one-way. Towards ever closer union.

GEORGES BERTHOIN:     Maybe it was a bit naive but we thought we were in a position to change European history. It sounds a bit stupid. But we believed in that. You know, at that time, we had the backing of public opinion on the continent. Because the experience and the tragedy of the war was in everybody’s personal history. I use the expression, but it was not one we used at that time, to build a kind of United States of Europe.

GG:        These days, if you say you support a United States of Europe, you might as well commit political suicide. Even here, in Strasbourg. These young activists are handing out leaflets for a by-election later this month. Last time round they took a third of the votes. This time they’re hoping to win. They are the Front National.

JULIA ABRAHAM Front National You know, I was born in 1992.

GG:        You were born in 1992?

JA:          And it was the year of the Treaty of Maastricht. And so we have not known this European dream. All we have known it’s only unemployment, the taxes, and all the disadvantages of this European Union. We have not known this European dream. For us it has been a failure.

GG:        The Front National is booming. A year from now, its leader Marine Le Pen could become president of France. She has promised to follow Britain’s lead and hold a referendum on EU membership. Julia says she will vote out.

JA:          We need to find back our borders, our sovereignty, our national freedom. To respect our own laws, which are not the same as in Germany or in Italy or Spain.

GG:        Some people worry that a party like yours is leading Europe back towards nationalism, back towards the place where it was in the 1930s.

JA:          You’re right, the European Union is leading us back. That is the problem. It is the European Union that creates unemployment and violence and insecurity.

GG:        The original founders of the EU had a dream. Of creating peace and prosperity through an ever closer union of nation states, based on common interests and common values. The thing about ever closer union is that it presupposes a corresponding weakening of individual national identity. Now it may be that the founders of the European Union thought that by the time we got to the second decade of the 21st century, the nation state would be a concept that had had its day. Well, it looks like they were wrong. Across Europe the politics of identity is on the rise. Tomorrow night we will be looking at borders. How the fall of the Iron Curtain led to a Europe more united than ever and how a quarter of a century later, the continent is in crisis over one of the cornerstones of the European dream, freedom of movement.

ED:         Gabriel Gatehouse there, Europe past and present.

Photo by waltercolor

Referendum Blog: May 4

Referendum Blog: May 4

MARDELL BIAS: Mark Mardell was the BBC’s first ‘Europe’ editor, appointed to the role back in 2006.

The circumstances are very relevant to the EU referendum now underway.

Back then, the EU was trying to foist on the member states the so-called EU Constitution and many governments – including that of Tony Blair, as well as those in Ireland and France – promised referendums before it was adopted.

The BBC was facing – then, as now – strong criticism that its relevant coverage was strongly pro-EU.  in response, acting BBC Chairman, the Conservative peer Lord Ryder decided to appoint former cabinet secretary Lord Wilson of Dinton to undertake a review.

History shows that this enquiry was unique in BBC history because it was genuinely independent, made up of Lord Wilson himself, plus two Eurosceptics and two Europhiles, although back then ‘Eurosceptic’ did not include a definite supporter of withdrawal.

The report can still be read on the former BBC governors’ archive. It was strongly scathing of the Corporation’s output on numerous grounds, and especially to the extent there was ‘bias by omission’, a failure to cover EU affairs sufficiently.

Mardell’s appointment was made by the BBC executive in response. It was a specially-created senior editorial post with the specific brief of ensuring that EU-related affairs were properly incorporated into BBC reporting.

Ten years on – in his relatively new role as presenter of The World This Weekend (TWTW) – his coverage of the EU referendum can thus be regarded as a particularly important indicator of how fair is the BBC reporting of the referendum campaign.  Surely, of all the BBC staff, he would be expected to achieve balanced coverage?

News-watch has completed analysis of the 15 editions of programmes since January 24. The answer is a resounding ‘no’.

Three editions stand out as being particularly biased: one from Portugal on February 7, in which 11 pro-EU guests were ranged against Leave.EU funder, the business man Richard Tice; the second from Lake Como in Italy (10/4), in which Mardell carefully assembled a cast of impressive-sounding remain fanatics who denounced the idea of the referendum as ‘stupid’; and the third on the weekend of President Obama’s ‘back of the queue’ message (24/4). On this occasion, Mardell crowed about how popular and influential a figure the president was and how he had taken a ‘wrecking ball’ to the Brexit case.

There is not the space here to detail all of this failure of impartiality. But a couple more examples illustrate further the range of problems. One edition led on a warning from the UK’s sole European Commissioner Lord Hill that agriculture and farmers would be heavily caned by ‘exit’ (20/4). The programme on this occasion reinforced that message with extensive tweeting. Another programme, earlier in the year, before David Cameron’s so-called ‘deal’ had been reached, explored how the ‘British contagion’ was triggering ‘populist’ and ‘anti-immigrant’ reactions across Europe, concluding with a dire prediction from the lefty former Greek minister Yanis Varoufakis (now, predictably a firm BBC favourite commentator) that unless there was greater integration in the EU, the consequences would be the collapse of the EU itself, followed by 1930s-style turmoil and recession (28/2).

The overall point is that Mardell has been relentlessly keen to cover the EU referendum. It has figured in the majority of editions. The analysis shows that throughout, he has worked especially hard to promote the benefits of ‘remain’, and to seek out polished contributors who can articulate that case. Their claims about the dire consequences of exit have been heavily prominent, and, indeed, have dominated many editions.

Conversely, there has been no programme since January 24 in which claims by the ‘exit’ side have led the programme and have been projected editorially with equal vigour to the editions where the ‘remain’ case has dominated.   An example of the Brexit side treatment was in the edition from Portugal – Richard Tice was given less than half the time of ‘remain’ supporter Sir Mike Rake, the former CBI chairman.

In parallel with this, when supporters of ‘out’ have appeared, they have been given a much harder time than their ‘remain’ equivalents.

No edition has set out with claims from the ‘exit’ side on the ascendant, or has sought as its main editorial thrust to push the ‘remain’ side to justify their stance.

Another frequent editorial approach has also been the investigation of divisions over the EU within the Conservative party. There has been no equivalent exploration within Labour of issues such as the impact on the working class vote of the parliamentary party’s strong support of EU immigration policies.

All this boils down to that one of the BBC’s most experienced observers of the EU over the past decade seems to be working hardest to project the ‘remain’ case, and on the occasions he looks at the Brexit side, to make special efforts to expose its weaknesses.

The Lord Wilson of Dinton report, with clinical precision, drew attention to the BBC’s failings in the reporting of ‘Europe’. A decade on, the man appointed to fix those issues seems be Carrying on Regardless.  The central problem is that he and his colleagues seemingly love the EU as much as ever, and are almost entirely blind to their own journalistic shortcomings in reporting its true nature.

Photo by cogdogblog

Referendum Blog: 28 April

Referendum Blog: 28 April

PRO-PATTEN BIAS: After his interview of Nigel Farage on Radio 4’s Today, in which presenter Nick Robinson attempted in every way he could to say that Ukip was an irrelevant political force, Robinson then interviewed Lord Patten, the former BBC chairman about why, in effect,  he thought it was vital for the Brexit side to lose.  The contrast between the two was stark. Here, numbers count:

Nigel Farage

Total Package Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds

Total words from Nigel Farage: 846

Longest uninterrupted sequence: 118 words (next highest were 112 and 80)

Number of times Nick Robertson spoke over or interrupted Nigel Farage:  10

Number of times ‘control’ of discussion passed between the two: 62 times

Chris Patten 

Total Package Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds

Total words from Chris Patten: 682

Longest uninterrupted sequence: 154 (but two others of 150 and 142)

Number of times Nick Robertson spoke over or interrupted Chris Patten:  1

Number of times ‘control’ of discussion passed between the two: 18

Put another way: Farage could scarcely get in a word edgeways, whereas Patten had a relaxed opportunity to put his various points.

Nigel Farage managed to say that Ukip was fighting the May election, was hoping for a breakthrough., was challenging on open-door immigration, which was rising, that families would be £40 a week better off outside the EU, and that the UK could survive outside the EU with a deal for trade which it would be able to negotiate. None of these policy points were more than a few words long, all of them were strongly challenged by Nick Robinson, and most of the time, Farage was defending negative points raised by Robinson. He chose not to ask about policy, and focused instead on the problems faced by both Farage and his party.

By contrast, Lord Patten was interrupted only once.   Because of the more relaxed approach, he had five sequences  of 154, 150, 142, 110 and 80 words in which he variously made the points that it was vital for the UK to stay in the EU  and take a lead role in it; that Britain had a natural leadership role in Europe, and those at our great institutions, such as academics, desperately wanted to stay bin the EU; that Margaret Thatcher was against referendums, and was a strong believer in the EU; that although ‘Europe’ as an issue had gnawed away at the Conservative party for years, but he now hoped it would be resolved and those who supported exit would be magnanimous in defeat; and that the BBC  was working ultra-hard – despite an absence of speakers and evidence to – convey  the Brexit case.  Robinson was ‘adversarial’ in that he pushed that the EU had caused divisions in the Conservative party and suggested that Margaret Thatcher had come to oppose it. The ‘Tory splits’ approach that News-watch research has shown has dominated the BBC coverage of the EU for 16 years, and suggests that the in/out debate is about party politics rather than issues of principle. Overall, Robinson seemed most focused on allowing Patten to put the anti-Brexit case; with Farage he aimed to prevent him as much as possible from making positive points at all.

 

Transcript of BBC Radio 4, ‘Today’, 27th April 2016, Interview with Nigel Farage, 7.51am

NICK ROBINSON:             Is this the year the job is finally over for the UK Independence Party? The moment it can claim victory in its battle to free the country from the clutches of Brussels, or have to accept that the people have spoken and they’ve chosen to stay within the European club?  Or is UKIP, which of course is fighting council, Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliamentary elections in just a few weeks’ time, here to stay whatever the result of the referendum?   We’re joined by UKIP’s leader, Nigel Farage, who joins us live from Cardiff.  Morning to you Mr Farage.

NIGEL FARAGE: Good morning.

NR:        People have a referendum, the people will decide, so what’s the point of voting UK in any other election?

NF:        Well they will decide on June 23 you’re quite right. However on May 5 as you said in your introduction, we’re fighting the Welsh Assembly elections Scottish Parliament elections, we’re fighting seats in Northern Ireland for Stormont,  we’re fighting the London Mayor, London Assembly, one and a half thousand council seats and we’ve got 34 people standing as police and crime commissioners.  So it’s er . . . it’s rather like a British Super Tuesday isn’t it really (laughter in voice) it’s remarkable.

NR:        What’s the point though?  People might think, well, look, I used to vote UKIP, if they did, to send a message, as it were . . .

NF:        (speaking over) No, no, no, no, no . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Why not?

NF:        No, no. We’re way beyond people voting UKIP as a protest or to send a message, and what we’re seeing is a very strong consolidation of the UKIP vote, where people now want to vote UKIP in every possible form of election.  We’ve made some big advances in councils over the course of the last couple of years, and I do anticipate more of that on May 5. But for me, I mean, the big goal on May 5 is to win representation in the London Assembly, the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Irish Assembly, and I think I’m the only party leader who’s got a chance of winning seats in all four of them.

NR:        You see, the suspicion some people have is that UKIP is a . . . curious combination of a one-man band – you, of course – and maybe this one-man is carrying a sack full of fighting ferrets.  You’re speaking to us from Cardiff, you’ve got prominent candidates, Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless who are not from Wales, and you’ve got the leader of the UKIP (sic) in Wales who says he wouldn’t have chosen them if he’d had the chance to do so.

NF:        Well, we put it to the members, and the members chose, so, you can’t argue with that, if that’s what party democracy comes up with.  Not everyone is going to like the result, but it is what it is, I mean . . .

NR:        (interrupting) You can’t argue with it, you say, but the leader of UKIP in Wales has done precisely that, he’s argued with it and he said it’s not who he wanted.

NF:        Well, it’s not who he wanted – that’s up to him isn’t it? Look, the point is this: we may have some discussions about who should and should not be candidates in winnable positions, but I look at the Conservative Party, which is literally ripping itself to pieces, and a Labour Party where over 80% of the MPs don’t want Corbyn as leader, and I look at their problems and think, ‘what I’ve got is nothing.’

NR:        (short laugh) You say it’s nothing, but of course, one of your most prominent members – well, is she a member?  It’s an interesting question, isn’t it?  Suzanne Evans, wanted to run against you for leader, was a prominent figure on television and radio, she’s now been suspended.  It sounds again, you can’t really deal with the competition.

NF:        Nothing to do with me.  I, I’m party leader, Nick, I tour the country, I try and raise money, I try and get the (fragment of word, unclear) the party coverage, I try and enthuse the troops.  I don’t deal with discipline or candidate selection, and I never have done.

NR:        Nothing to do with you? Suzanne Evans . . .

NF:        (speaking over) I have nothing . . .

NR:        (speaking over) You have no influence over what the party does.

NF:        Zip.

NR:        Okay, well let’s take the opportunity now, why don’t you take the opportunity now to say, ‘I want her back, she’s one of our best and most prominent voices, we need her, she’s a contrast to me, we don’t get on, but let’s have her back.’

NF:        (speaking over) Well, I don’t think she behaved terribly well, so . . .

NR:        So you don’t want her back?

NF:        I don’t think she’s behaved terribly well, she’s suspended for a short period of time, but, but frankly (words unclear due to speaking over)

NR:        (speaking over) Do you want her back or not though, I’m just asking you that.

NF:        (speaking over) Well, as I say we’ve got, on May 5 UKIP is going to make a significant breakthrough into lots of levels of parliament and assembly to which we’ve never been before, and off the back of that we’re going to fight a big, strong campaign in the run-up to the referendum on June 23, and I think it’s very important, in this referendum campaign that the Leave side actually gets into the other half of the pitch and starts to challenge the Remain side about open-door immigration, about the fact, the figures that are out this morning, saying we’ve underestimated Eastern Europ— Eastern European migration by at least 50,000 people a year . . .

NR:        (speaking over) There are some other figures out this morning as well, you may have heard them, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the OECD, says Brexit is like a tax, that it will cost people the equivalent of one month’s salary . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Yeah, yeah.

NR:        . . . by 2020.  Do you say, ‘Yeah, yeah’, but . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Yeah, yeah, yeah. IMF, OECD, you know, a whole series of international organisations, stuffed full of overpaid people who failed in politics mostly, (fragments of words, unclear) and frankly . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Well presumably you’ve got . . . would you like to give us a list of the organisations that agree with you, because it, it’d be very . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Yeah.

NR:        . . . useful to have them.

NF:        (speaking over) Yeah. Yeah, they’re called ‘markets’ they’re called ‘consumers’ they’re called ‘people’ and they’re called ‘the real world’, and . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Well can you, can you name an organisation of economic . . .

NF:        (speaking over) And I have the advantage . . .

NR:        . . . forecasters, private or public, that agrees with your view . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Oh well, I mean, I mean . . .

NR:        . . . that you’d be better off outside the EU.

NF:        (speaking over) I’m in . . . I’m in Cardiff.  I’m in Cardiff, I mean, the Professor of Economic at Cardiff University, Patrick Minford, said very clearly that outside the European Union the average British family would be £40 per week better off.

NR:        He’s one individual, Mr Farage, isn’t he? He’s not an organisation . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Well . . .

NR:        . . . he’s not . . .

NF:        (speaking over) It’s very interesting, you know . . .

NR:        (speaking over) an international body.

NF:        Yeah, well, of course.  These international bodies, there’s virtually nobody working for any of them that has manufactured a good (sic) or traded a product globally.  I did that for 20 years before getting into politics, and the fact is, whether we’re in the European Union or outside the European Union, we will go on buying, buying and selling goods between France and Germany and Britain and Italy, because ultimately, markets aren’t created by politicians, it’s about consumers making choices.

NR:        Just like Albania, is it?  Because Michael Gove suggested the other day we could have a trading relationship with the rest of Europe like Albania’s?

NF:        Well, I don’t think he really did, I think that’s sort of, sort of spin, no I mean look . . .

NR:        (interrupting) Well, if he, if he didn’t, forgive me, which country would you like . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Look . . .

NR:        . . . us to have a relationship like, if you see what, sorry (words unclear due to speaking over)

NF:        (speaking over) I would like us to have a relationship like the eurozone’s biggest export market in the world, the market they need more than any other to have as free access to as possible, and I want is to have . . . I mean, if little countries . . .

NR:        Like? Like?

NF:        . . . if little countries like Norway and Switzerland can get their own deals, then we can have a bespoke British deal that suits us.

NR:        Well, they both, as you know, have to take immigration through free movement, so just . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Well . . .

NR:        . . . we’ve only got ten seconds, can you name a country . . .

NF:        (speaking over) they’ve been betrayed . . .

NR:        . . . that you would like to be like?

NF:        They’ve been betrayed by their politicians in both Norway and Switzerland, and they’re now rebelling against that . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Just five seconds left, can you name a country that you would like us to be like (words unclear due to speaking over ‘after Brexit’?)

NF:        (speaking over) Yeah, the biggest market in the world.  The United Kingdom will have its own deal with the EU and be free to make its own deals with the rest of the world, we will be better off.

NR:        Er, I think the answer’s no you can’t name a country, but Nigel Farage . . .

NF:        (speaking over) Because, because we’re, because we’re the United Kingdom, we’ll do our own deal.

NR:        Thank you very much for joining us, Nigel Farage.

 

Transcript of BBC Radio 4, ‘Today’, 27th April 2016, Interview with Chris Patten, 8.34am

NICK ROBINSON:             It’s been another interesting week in the story of those everyday folk, who just happened to be running the country.  The Justice Secretary says the Health Secretary could pay junior doctors more, if only we got out of the EU.  The Home Secretary disagrees, she wants to stay in the EU, but she would like to tell you that she wants to get out of the ECHR, which the Justice Secretary says we’re staying in.  Meantime, the Mayor of London . . . you get the idea.  I hope you’re all following this.  Well, no, let me summarise, the Tory party is more publicly divided than it has been for years, since, in fact, the 1990s, when (fragment of word, unclear) John Major fought to keep his party together.  Alongside him then was his Conservative Party Chairman, Chris – Lord – Patten, who joins me now. And was of course also Chairman of the BBC for a period of time.

CHRIS PATTEN:  (speaking over) Happy families, Nick, happy families.

NR:        Happy families.  There were those Conservatives who believed that this referendum would, and I quote their phrase, ‘lance the boil’.  Isn’t the truth that it is merely spreading poison?

CP:         Well, I think that depends, erm, on the outcome.  I very much hope that will vote to remain in the European Union, I think that’s in the interests of not least my kids, and the next generation, I think it’s in the interests of a better future, but erm, I, there will be a lot of collateral damage, erm, if we vote to come out.  I hope that if we vote to stay in, those who have been campaigning to withdraw will actually not take the Alex Salmond (fragments of words, unclear) path and think this is a nef— neverendum, rather than a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.  Erm, and I think, I hope that they will support the very elegantly put proposition of Theresa May yesterday that we should, or, the day before yesterday, that we should erm, be self-confident and take a leading role in the European Union.  So, I hope that’s the position they’ll take.

NR:        In order to win, do you believe that the Remain campaign has to do rather better than say, ‘You’ll be a few quid worse off, if you dare to leave’?

CP:         Well it is, of course (short laugh) decidedly relevant that will be poorer – I think everybody accepts that, except for a few diehards on the other side, but I do . . .

NR:        (speaking over) It’s not (words unclear) you served in Brussels, though, is it, as a Commissioner, (words unclear due to speaking over)

CP:         (speaking over) No, it isn’t, it isn’t, it’s, it’s because I think that erm, er . . . Britain has a natural role leading Europe, er, I, I believe passionately that a lot of the problems we face in the country, and in other countries today can only be dealt with through international, greater international cooperation, and I want to see Britain leading that.  We are a great country, we’ve got great cultural institutions, greatest, if I may say so, public service broadcaster in the world, the greatest universities in the world, some of the greatest researchers. When researchers say they how much they hope, desperately, that we’ll stay European Union, that, that resonates with me, and I want us to be able to play a leading role internationally, I want us to be part of the global, liberal order, which makes the world more stable and more decent today than it used to be.

NR:        What do you say to those though who remember that people like yourself fought Mrs Thatcher over the issue of Europe, and they say, look, she was right to warn about Brussels’ creeping power, she was right to say the single currency couldn’t possibly work and would drag us all into an economic crisis, she was right to have some worries that enlargement wouldn’t have a, produce a shallower Europe, but a deeper one with mass immigration.

CP:         But she was also right to argue passionately against referendums, which she regarded as being the favourite . . . I think these are her, almost her words – the favourite devices of despots and dictators. Erm, she was also right . . . erm, to argue that there was a huge political case as well as an economic case for Europe.  And she was right, erm, to argue that we should be playing a leadership role in Europe, not withdrawing.

NR:        When you quoted those words, which I think you did to David Cameron, said the referendum was the last resort of dictators – I don’t imagine he was best pleased, was he?

CP:         Erm, I’ve, I’ve disagreed with party leaders, erm, for years about referendums.  I think referendums undermine parliamentary democracy.

NR:        How does the Conservative Party avoid the mess, frankly, much worse than a mess, wasn’t it, the disaster of what befell the government that you were a central part of in the mid and early 90s?

CP:         Well, you’re quite right, erm, that this is an issue that’s been gnawing away at the unity, the integrity of the Conservative Party for years.  I very much hope that this will decide the issue once and for all.  It will require spectacular quantity of magnanimity on the part of the Prime Minister, but it will also require a commitment by those who lose, which I hope they will, on the Brexit side, to pull together now and work for the interest of the country, and for the interests of the future, so that we don’t find ourselves once again as . . . David Willets might put it, ‘Committing an act of intergenerational theft against younger people.’

NR:        A last word on an organisation that you used to be in charge of, you were Chairman of this organisation, of course, which you . . .

CP:         (speaking over) (word unclear)

NR:        . . . generously called ‘the greatest broadcast in the world’ the BBC . . .

CP:         Hmm.

NR:        There are people on your side of the argument now who are in favour of remaining in the EU who, to paraphrase them say ‘the BBC is bending over backwards to produce balance in this argument, and doing so in a way that does not produce the facts.’

CP:         Well . . . erm . . . I think the BBC has an extremely difficult job. Erm, it’s having to cover this referendum, er, with the shadow of a Charter Review and Mr Whittingdale hanging over it, erm, I think that may make people excessively deferential when trying to produce balance.  You have the Govenor of the Bank of England on, or, or the IMF chief, so you feel obliged to erm, put up some, er . . . some Conservative backbencher that nobody’s ever heard of on the other side of the argument.  And it does, it does . . . occasionally raise eyebrows, but I think I would prefer the BBC to be being criticised for being so balanced, excessively balanced, than for, than for doing anything else. It’s a very great broadcaster, which is dedicated to telling the truth, and that’s an unusual thing in the world of the media.

NR:        Lord Patten, Chris Patten, thank you very much indeed.

Photo by UK in Italy

Referendum Blog: April 27

Referendum Blog: April 27

GET FARAGE!: Here we go again…almost exactly a year ago, during the general election, Evan Davis slammed into Nigel Farage, interrupting him no fewer than 50 times and hardly letting him utter a single word about policy. Today, it was Nick Robinson’s turn on Today. Ostensibly this was an interview about Ukip’s chances in the various May elections, but Robinson had another agenda, which at core, was to work flat out was to show the party was hopeless, divided and clueless. First off, what was the point of voting Ukip at all in these elections, because their relevance was only to the EU referendum?  Next – a BBC constant ever since Nigel Farage entered the national stage – he was a ‘curious’ one-man band. Then, the party he is leading is a ‘sack of fighting ferrets’. The next point was a new one: Farage ‘can’t deal with competition’ because his rival for leadership, Suzanne Evans had been suspended. Whether or not she had behaved badly became a central point of the interview.  Next were  figures from the OECD, which, said Robinson, showed that Brexit would cost people the equivalent of one month’s salary.  Farage tried to answer, but Robinson was having none of it. Before he could explain why the figures did not add up, Robinson introduced another challenge. He wanted ‘a list of the organisations that agree with you’. NF tried to say what counted was consumers and markets rather than the big organisations, but Robinson slammed him again to demand that he name ’an organisation of economic forecasters…who agrees with your view that you’d be better off outside the EU’. Farage said that Patrick Minford, the professor of economics at Cardiff University (where he was) said that the average British family would be better off by £40 a week.  That, however, in Robinson’s book, did not count because he was not an international body. Farage said the that international bodies did not have figures working for them that traded manufactured goods, and that outside or inside the European Union, the UK would continue trading. Nick Robinson asked if the trading relationship would be like that of Albania’s as mentioned by Michael Gove. Farage said what Gove had said about Albania had been spun. Robinson asked what country he would like to base the UK’s relationship on.  Farage said that if small countries like Norway and Switzerland could reach their own deals, the UK could arrive at a bespoke deal.  Robinson then gave him ten seconds to name a country ‘that you would like to be like’. Farage repeated that the UK could forge its own deal. Robinson responded:

‘Er, I think the answer’s no you can’t name a country’.

All these issues were legitimate lines of questioning. But the point here was the tone: Robinson from the outside was massively aggressive and on a mission to push Farage as hard as he could. He gave him very little space to answer and in every case, crashed in with another reason why his answers were unsatisfactory. The contrast between that approach, and, for example, Huw Edward’s handling on Sunday of his interview with President Obama could not be greater, even allowing for the fact that the latter is President of the USA. An important perspective here is that the BBC has form. Nick Robinson’s belligerent approach to Farage was yet another example in a long line of similar encounters.  In nearly all of them the formula has been the same, especially the idea that Ukip is a one-trick pony and grossly incompetent.  This was ostensibly an interview about the party’s prospects in the forthcoming UK elections, but it was nothing of the sort. It was an unsubtle, disproportionately hostile, attempt to discredit the Brexit case and to yet again to undermine both Farage and Ukip.

Photo by Euro Realist Newsletter

Referendum Blog: April 25

Referendum Blog: April 25

CROWING FOR OBAMA?: Mark Mardell’ the BBC’s former ‘Europe’ editor and now presenter of World This Weekend, was in no doubt on Sunday about how important President Obama’s observations about the EU referendum were. He declared:

The UK part of his farewell tour wouldn’t even count as a long weekend, but it might prove the most important 50 hours in the referendum campaign so far.  Here was one of the most popular and powerful politicians in the whole world pulling no punches. 

Next came an extract from the president’s interview by Huw Edwards in which he outlined in detail and in full the horrors that would befall the UK if it left the EU.  Mardell then visited the president’s staged ‘town hall’ question and answer session, where, he said, Obama seemed to be ‘a bit of a rock star to some’.   There followed a vox pop in which the first respondent said that Obama ‘had every right to speak out’ in the way he had because Britain was not an isolated country. The second voice agreed it was OK for the president to intervene, the third said he could have an opinion, but it was up to the British people to decide. Mardell concluded:

Of course, what any President of the United States says is important, but this one perhaps strikes a different chord.

He then asked ‘former adviser to the Labour leadership’ Aisha Hazanika how it struck her that Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson had mentioned his Kenyan ancestry.  She responded:

It sort of smacked of a completely unnecessary, weird undertone that was pretty unpleasant, and I think actually, very un-British.  I think people were quite embarrassed about it, and I think it ties into what’s actually happening with the mayoral election at the moment, we are seeing quite an ugly strain of dog whistle politics.  There are people in the Conservative Party saying ‘We’re not saying Sadiq is necessarily a terrorist, but . . .’ and that kind of smearing with innuendo and association is not something that has really happened in British politics, and I don’t think that that sends a particularly progressive message around the country and to the rest of the world.

Mardell then observed with the 400th anniversary of Shakespeare’s death and the Queen’s 90th birthday, it could have been a week for ‘inward looking staring backwards at the past’, and the president’s political intervention had been wrapped in appeals to British sentimentality. He said:

But the blunt, unsentimental job he set himself was to take a wrecking ball to the Leave campaigners’ case

Mardell then spoke to Simon Hix, introduced as a professor of political science at the London School of Economics. He noted that the ‘leave’ side was calling Obama a lame duck figure, but then said that the president was ‘telling it pretty straight’ and was ‘articulating the policy that was probably that of the Washington establishment’. He added:

I think the onus is on the people campaigning for Brexit now to articulate the post-Brexit vision of the UK in the world, and one of the big question marks there is Britain’s relationship with the United States.  They always assumed that we could leave the EU and we’d naturally be able to set up some Anglospheres, some global, English-speaking trade bloc, as a substitute for the EU in a way, and I think Obama has put paid to that idea.

Mardell then interviewed ‘former defence secretary’ Liam Fox and noted first that, before the visit, with the backing of 100 other MPs, he had written a letter to the US Embassy urging Obama not to intervene. Mardell noted that the advice had been ignored and then asked what impact the intervention would have. Dr Fox replied that Obama’s claim that Britain would go to the back of the queue in arriving at a trade deal would not apply because the negotiations would not be handled by his successor. Mardell said that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would follow the same policies. Fox replied that what was said in primaries could not be trusted, and pointed out that negotiating trade deals with the EU was highly complex as 27 countries were involved. Mardell interrupted to state that the president was quite clear – it was impossible to queue-jump and it could take ten years. Fox disagreed and claimed that several deals were dealt with at the same time, it was not a system of one at a time. Mardell observed that Fox was an ‘Atlanticist,,,someone who was very much believes in ties with the US’. It was now clear that Obama wanted Britain inside the EU.  Fox responded that the president had also observed that the bond between the two countries was unbreakable. Mardell said:

But nevertheless, doesn’t the President’s whole tone rather blow a hole in the argument for an Anglosphere, for an Atlanticist approach of a Britain outside the European Union?

Fox disagreed and said leaving the EU would make the UK open and outward looking rather than in the strait-jacket of the EU, ‘heading for massive economic failure as a result of the single currency…and the collapse of Schengen’.   Mardell noted that Fox’s letter to the US embassy had said that the intervention of the president could undermine the vote itself’. He asked if this had now happened. Fox said that in the interview with Huw Edwards, there had been a lot of backtracking, and his message had been softened so that it was now ‘more appropriate’.  Finally, Mardell asked what Fox thought about Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage raising the president’s ‘half-Kenyan ancestry’. Dr Fox said it was important that the debate was about the issues.

That’s a long analysis, but important to show the range and parameters of this Obama package and to illustrate the extent of Mardell’s imbalance.  First, it should be noted that Liam Fox was given a reasonable opportunity to respond to some of the points raised by the Obama visit, and made a decent fist 0f doing so.

But the negatives in the construction far outweigh that. The first issue is Mardell’s extravagant, open admiration of Obama. Of course, the president of the United States is powerful, but Mardell emphasised and amplified that on at least three occasions, leaving listeners in no doubt whatsoever that this was a very important man making a very, very important contribution to the referendum debate. Second, his vox pop sequence was weighted to the ‘in side’; those he spoke to expressed only one slight reservation that this was an important, relevant message delivered at an appropriate time.  Third, the former Labour party ‘leadership adviser’ Hazarika was given a totally open goal to call Boris Johnson’s mention of Obama’s ancestry ‘unnecessary, weird and pretty unpleasant’ – and then to deliver a withering attack on the Conservative conduct in the mayoral elections. In effect, Mardell presented her with the platform to call him ‘racist’, without explaining at all that Johnson’s newspaper about article about Obama’s intervention contained detailed argument as to why his background in Kenya was relevant. Fourth, Mardell included comment from Professor Hix that the intervention of Obama ‘was a serious blow to one of the key pillars of the Brexit campaign’ without including anything that challenge such an extreme statement. President Obama had already set out his position in the feature; this amplified it. Of course, Liam Fox then rebutted the point, but the construction meant that this was a 2-1 argument, not a straight 1-1 equation. And that was the overall position. Much more time was allocated to the Obama pitch, and Mardell exaggerated its strength by his extravagant praise of Obama.  He gave the distinct impression that he was crowing against the Brexit case, and enjoying it.

 

Photo by dcblog

Referendum Blog: April 24

Referendum Blog: April 24

MORE NEWSNIGHT BIAS: Newsnight continued their series EU Referendum Road on Friday night with a visit by reporter Katie Razzall to the Shetland Isles, the UK’s most northerly outpost.  The full transcript is below.  As with her previous report, it heavily favoured the ‘remain’ side – although not so obviously. The ‘in’ case was articulated by two figures: the managing director of a local green energy company, and a woman, who it was said had been passionately ‘out’ at the 1975 EU referendum – to the extent that she had been involved in noisy protests and arrested – but was now firmly ‘in’. Razzall buttressed their pro-EU remarks with an observation at the end that all 15 of the regulars of a local pub were in favour of staying in.  Ranged against that were two ‘out’ figures – one a former ‘Viking chief’ who now ran a local real ale brewery, and who looked to Norway as a model that the Shetlands might follow because the place was ‘absolutely pristine’; and a farmer who said the local economy needed to adopt a more global outlook. He claimed that ‘little Europe’ was ‘not for us’. On the face of it, therefore, there was a form of balance, two ‘ins’ against two definitely ‘outs’.

The bias stemmed from other factors., One was that Razzall said that in the 1975 EU referendum, the islands had been one of only two electoral areas of the UK that had voted ‘out’. She then set out to show that this had been based on that the economy back then had been primarily linked to fishing – and spoke immediately to the green energy manufacturer who said strongly that he supported ‘in’.  She asserted:

‘But how changeable are Shetlanders’ attitudes to the EU four decades on? New industries have grown up since the fishermen swung the vote, Shetland is pioneering tidal power, and Fred Gibson’s firm, which has received some EU funding, is making the fibreglass blades.

FRED GIBSON Shetland Composites The first one is up and running at the moment. As we speak it is actually producing electricity which is going on to the local grid.

KR:        So you will be voting to stay in?

FG:        Oh, absolutely. I think it is going to be very interesting, what’s going to happen here, this time. I can see exactly why they voted no last time. And that was purely down to the fishing industry.

KR:        That’s still important in Shetland, but it employs far fewer people these days.

FG:        When I was at school, there would be at least three or four other pupils in my class whose fathers were going out probably every day to go fishing. It’s funny because I asked that same question to my children quite recently, and they said that they didn’t actually know anyone, and then one of them said, oh, he thought that somebody’s father was a fisherman in his year group. So that has completely changed.’

Thus Razzall’s editing and selection of comment suggested that although the fishing industry remained ‘important’ it was at a far lesser level to the point that fishermen were rare. Checks on Google, however, soon reveal that, in fact, fishing, remains the islands’ main source of income, accounting for 28% of all economic activity. This is what the Shetland Economy website says:

‘The fishing industry – which includes the catching, farming and processing of fish and shellfish – is Shetland’s biggest sector by some way. It has always been at the absolute heart of Shetland’s economy and community. The seafood industry is worth £300m a year to the local economy.’

She deliberately projected a misleading impression to viewers. The reality is that more fish is landed annually in Lerwick than the whole of Wales, England and Northern Ireland combined; the only fishing port bigger than Lerwick in the entire UK is Peterhead; the value of the catch is £76m annually (plus there is a very substantial salmon farming industry); and very substantial numbers of local people are employed in fish processing and related activities.

In ignoring the fishermen, Razzall glossed over a vital strand of local opinion. The local fishermen’s association, as is revealed by their website, is clearly unhappy with the Common Fisheries Policy.

Further analysis: a brief but important ‘remain’ contribution was overlooked.  After the remarks supporting ‘remain’ by the green energy manufacturer Fred Gibson, Shetlands postmistress Valerie Johnson was asked if islanders would vote in the same way as 1975.  She responded that she could not see that happening, and when challenged by Razall why, she stated:

I think the unknown is if you are not in it, of what would happen.

KR:     It’s the unknown. Project Fear is working.

VJ:       Yeah, yeah.

This tipped the overall balance of contributions to three in favour of ‘remain’ against two for ‘exit’. At a very basic level, therefore – on top of the observations above –  Katie Razzall edited her feature so that it was against the ‘exit’ case.

Photo by Reading Tom