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David Keighley

Referendum Blog: May 16

Referendum Blog: May 16

BBC BORIS BIAS:  Was Boris Johnson wrong to refer to Hitler in a point about the history of attempts to unite Europe? Was what he said as controversial as was projected? Senior Labour figures Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper certainly thought his mention was below the belt, and so did several figures in the Conservative ‘remain’ camp such as Lord Soames.

The tone of the BBC’s coverage also suggested that there were problems in his approach.  He had sent ‘sparks flying’. This is what newsreader Clive Myrie said in the BBC1 News at Ten bulletin;

The prominent Vote Leave campaigner in June’s EU referendum, Boris Johnson, has compared what he claims is the ambition of some in Europe to create a single Superstate to the aims of Adolf Hitler.  In an article for a Sunday newspaper, he said both the Nazi leader and the EU, shared similar goals but today’s politicians were simply using different methods. The shadow foreign secretary, Hilary Benn who backs the Remain campaign said his comments were offensive and desperate.  Here’s our political correspondent Ben Wright.

BEN WRIGHT: It’s a time for hard hats. Boris Johnson rarely does subtle but his latest intervention in the referendum campaign has sent sparks flying. A leading Leave campaigner, Mr Johnson said the last 2,000 years of European history had seen doomed attempts to recreate the Roman Empire by trying to unify it – Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out and it ends tragically. The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods, he said.

Wright also included opinion from Hilary Benn:

I think to try and compare what Hitler and the Nazis did, the millions of people who died, Holocaust, to the free democracies of Europe coming together to trade and cooperate, and in the process to help secure peace on the continent of Europe is frankly deeply offensive.

BW: Europe’s history and Britain’s place in it has become a battleground in this referendum. Glowering over Parliament is Churchill, whose own views on Europe are being pressed into service by both sides. And the past is being invoked to stir our emotions, our gut feelings, and that’s why Boris Johnson mentioned Churchill’s wartime enemy. But of course, this referendum is really about the future, the political and economic repercussions of staying in or leaving the EU. And today the governor of the Bank of England, who does not do interviews often, decided to repeat a warning he made last week.

MARK CARNEY Bank of England Governor: What our judgement is, as a risk, is that growth will be materially slower and inflation notably higher in event of a ‘Leave’.

IAIN DUNCAN SMITH MP Conservative Vote Leave: The Governor has strayed now into the expression of what is a simple, personal prediction. I don’t actually think that it is possible to say with any absolute accuracy that that will happen.

BW: Boris Johnson’s comments have whipped up a controversy this weekend. The Leave campaign knows that many big economic voices are sceptical of their case, but this referendum is about hearts as much as heads. Ben Wright, BBC News.

Wright thus two important claims based on his opinion as a BBC correspondent. First that Johnson was trying to stir up emotions and gut feelings ’and that is why he mentioned Churchill’s wartime enemy’; and second, that the leave campaign was trying to appeal to people’s hearts rather than their heads because they knew that ‘many economic voices are skeptical of their case’.

So what did Boris Johnson actually say that was so emotive and so calculated, according to Wright, to appeal also to people’s emotions?  In his interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Johnson actually said:

The whole thing began with the Roman Empire. I wrote a book on this subject, and I think it’s probably right. The truth is that the history of the last couple of thousand years has been broadly repeated attempts by various people or institutions – in a Freudian way – to rediscover the lost childhood of Europe, this golden age of peace and prosperity under the Romans, by trying to unify it. Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out, and it ends tragically.

The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods. But fundamentally what it is lacking is the eternal problem, which is that there is no underlying loyalty to the idea of Europe. There is no single authority that anybody respects or understands. That is causing this massive democratic void.

Points about this are:

  • Johnson’s remarks were based on his considered judgment as a historian who has studied and written about in depth European history.
  • Attempts to unify Europe by Napoleon and Hitler had ended in tragic failure,
  • The EU was also an attempt – by clearly different methods – to unify Europe, but it was also likely to ultimately fail because there was no underlying loyalty to the idea of Europe, and there was no single authority that anyone respect6ed or understood.

What he did not say directly was that the EU and its operations are  ‘like Hitler’ or ‘like Napoleon’; his central assertion was rather that all attempts to achieve ‘European unity’ are ultimately doomed because there is no underlying allegiance to ’Europe’. Newsreader Myrie was this wrong and over-polarising in drawing the conclusion that Johnson had asserted that Hitler and the EU ‘had similar goals’. The Johnson claim was rather that the goal of ‘European unity’ was unattainable, whoever tried to achieve it, and it was based on false illusions about ancient Rome.  Ben Wright missed completely from his analysis the key point that ‘there is no underlying loyalty to the idea of Europe’ and thus misled viewers.

The BBC did include in the sequence comments from Jacob Rees Mogg:

Boris was making a carefully calibrated comparison. And all these figures, Philip II of Spain, Louis XIV of France, Napoleon and Hitler were all trying to create a United States of Europe, though admittedly they wanted to do it by force whilst the EU is doing it by stealth.

The issue here is that the ‘remain’ side pounced on the Johnson remarks to suggest the Leave side was desperately trying to evoke comparisons to Hitler in order to discredit the EU. The BBC seemed to be too eager in its flagship bulletin to jump on the same bandwagon and constructed a report which seemed to be deliberately calculated to exaggerate the evocation of Hitler’s name.

Interestingly, earlier in the day, Andrew Marr appeared on his BBC1 show to strike a very different approach. In the newspaper review, Julia Hartley-Brewer said:

‘This is being overplayed. He’s saying the European Union are looking towards a federal superstate, and various people have tried this: Napoleon, Hitler…of course Hitler is the mention everyone gets, but what he is saying is true.’

Marr responded:

‘It’s much more nuanced than the headline suggests. I’m not normally one to say ‘Boris is very, very nuanced’ but he’s very careful. He specifically says ‘I’m not saying the EU people are like Hitler.’ He’s saying, ‘Again and again and again we’ve tried to have a united Europe and every single time it’s ended in tears’.

Actually, Marr also got what Johnson actually said wrong. He missed the key point about a lack of underlying loyalty. But the overall observation that his statement was ‘more nuanced’ than the headlines suggested was spot on.

 

Photo by BackBoris2012

Brexit the Movie –  a perspective not on the BBC

Brexit the Movie – a perspective not on the BBC

This month marks the 17th anniversary of tracking by News-watch of the BBC’s EU-related output. The first survey was commissioned by a cross-party group of peers who were concerned that the case against the EU was not being aired by the BBC. It covered the build-up to the European Parliamentary elections on June 10, 1999.

The findings can still be read here. Key points relating to BBC bias are eerily familiar. They included bias by omission: election-related items on BBC television added to only 2.5% of airtime. Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight described the voters’ reaction to the poll as an ‘outbreak of narcolepsy’.  In the event, only 24% of the electorate voted, which still stands as the UK record lowest turnout in a national election.

Other points in the report were the virtual ignoring of the infant Ukip, despite the fact it came fourth,  attracted 700,000 (7%) of the votes cast and won three seats; a totally-predictable crude comparison of Ukip to the BNP in the sole interview featuring the party; a heavy and disproportionate focus on the breakaway Pro-Euro Conservative Party, which despite all the publicity, polled only 140,000 (1.4%) of the total turnout; a constant search for ‘Tory-splits’, even though – Michael Heseltine apart – the evidence seemed to be that William Hague’s party was remarkably united on EU policy; and virtually no exploration of either the overall Labour approach or potential splits within the party over the euro.

All of which brings Brexit the Movie – which, from today will have a permanent, prominent place on this site –  neatly into focus. For those of you who have not yet heard of it, this 71-minute feature by Martin Durkin – which was partially crowd-funded –  is a must-see. It’s a total revelation because it is a first: it straightforwardly and vigorously presents the ‘out’ case.

In Durkin’s estimation, negatives about the EU include that there are a staggering 10,000 European Union employees paid more than David Cameron; that Switzerland – despite being outside the EU – is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, with earnings double the average in the UK, and unemployment far lower; that the EU ‘Parliament’ is the only body with that name in the world which has zero powers to propose legislation; that although the EU claims to be a promoter of trade via the ‘single market’ , the reality is that for most of its history it has been a repressive force against the free movement of goods; and that far from promoting harmony, the fundamentally undemocratic structures of the EU are promoting unprecedented frustration and triggering the rise of extremist parties of both left and right.

This is a perspective and a range of information that News-watch monitoring shows beyond doubt that the BBC has never presented in a coherent form. Of course the BBC, it will probably argue, is not in the business of producing such material.  But why not? Last year, the Corporation commissioned and broadcast with great fanfare The Great European Disaster Movie, which showed at length the chaos and panic the makers claimed would ensue, if, God forbid, the UK exited the EU.

That film was made by former Economist editor Bill Emmott, a self-declared EU-fanatic, who has a set up his own ‘charity’ (with Richard Sambrook, a former Director of BBC News) to promote such propaganda. The BBC was so keen on his film project that it applied for (and obtained)  EU funding so that it could be translated into as many languages as possible; the fruit of their efforts is that screenings are due in Geneva, Bologna, Cardiff University and Bucharest over the next month.

Continuing monitoring by News-watch during the referendum campaign shows that the BBC is at last – for the first time –  airing some detailed elements of the Brexit case. But at best this effort can only be described as begrudging and half-hearted. Craig Byers, for example , of the Is the BBC Biased? site has shown this weekend that  since April 14, the BBC1 News at Six’s coverage of EU-referendum related headlines have led with ‘remain’ headlines 14 times, compared to the ‘out’ side three times.

In the same vein, News-watch analysis of the May 11 and 12 News at 10 coverage of the Mark Carney, Sir John Major and Christine Lagarde interventions into the referendum debate was heavily skewed towards the ‘remain’ case. And other long-term investigations have shown that Newsnight, World Tonight and The World This Weekend coverage of referendum matters is strongly similarly imbalanced.

What is certain is that – although it is impossible to frame a definitive verdict at this stage about BBC coverage – the facts assembled by Durkin have never been presented in such a way by the Corporation. Don’t hold your breath that they will. Watch Brexit the Movie instead.

Referendum Blog: May 15

Referendum Blog: May 15

On Thursday, BBC1’s main bulletins put heavy weight on the warning by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that Brexit could lead to an economic downturn.  On Friday night, similar importance and prominence was afforded to equally strong ‘remain’ advocacy by former Prime Minister John Major and Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund.   BBC economics editor Kamal Ahmad, as in his report the previous day, left no doubt how important these warnings were.  He stated:

‘Another day in this referendum campaign and another major international organisation warns Britain about the economic risks of leaving the European Union. Of course, here in the Treasury, they are pretty pleased that the IMF has broadly backed George Osborne’s assessment and it’s not the last we are going to hear from the IMF. Just a few days before the referendum, they are going to produce a report which will talk about employment, house prices and the Brexit risk. It is thought it will be equally gloomy.’

It is of course, true that such organisations and their leaders seem to be lining up to attack the ‘out’ case, and there is no avoiding that in news terms. But there are also huge question marks why this should be. Have their efforts been encouraged and coordinated by the government? There is widesapread suspicion that it is. And is it because – as the Guido website unearthed – they are all actually in the pay of the EU? These are legitimate questions to ask, but these possibilities and such exploration does not feature in the BBC reporting. On Friday night, Ahmad simply reported the Lagarde claims; his curiosity did not extend any further, and his main intent was to stress how importantly negative against the ‘out’  case the claims were.

The overall report contained counter opinion against John Major’s intervention from the Conservative minister Dominic Raab, and in reaction to the Lagarde claims from Priti Patel, also a government minister. But their responses were no more than about 50 words each. Raab said it was irresponsible not to talk about immigration in the light of new statistics, and Patel that the IMF figures could not be taken at face value e vital to talk. By contrast, newsreader Fiona Bruce said this about Sir John Major’s claims:

Sir John Major has launched a stinging attack on senior Conservatives heading the campaign to leave the EU. The former Tory Prime Minister said the Justice Secretary Michael Gove should be embarrassed and ashamed of his anti-EU rhetoric. And he called on Boris Johnson and former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith to apologise for peddling false figures

Reporter Eleanor Garnier added that this was:

‘… a big name making a big intervention. And making his own case for staying in the EU, he attacked claims made by Tory colleagues, Boris Johnson, the former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith, and the Justice Secretary Michael Gove, that leaving the EU could save millions of pounds a week.

JM: Those who make such demonstrably false claims, knowingly do so, need to apologise that they have got their figures so badly wrong and stop peddling a clear-cut untruth.

EG: And he warned colleagues who he says are raising fear and prejudice with their arguments over immigration, that it’s a treacherous road to go down. JM: Some of the Brexit leaders morph into Ukip and turn to their default position, immigration. This is their trump card. I urge them to take care. This is dangerous territory that if handled carelessly, can open up long-term divisions in our country.

EG: This is a significant intervention from the former Prime Minister. He’s naming people with ambitions to one day lead the Conservative party as reckless, and as this referendum campaign goes on the Tory-on-Tory attacks are getting more personal. The question – how united can and will the party be when all this is over?’

After Raab’s contribution (which was included without any other explanation), she concluded:

He rarely makes interventions, but this decision he says is final, and he’ll be hoping people are listening.

Fiona Bruce said about the Lagarde/IMF contribution:

‘Another powerful voice arguing today for the UK to remain in the EU was the head of the International Monetary Fund. Christine Lagarde warned it could be at least “pretty bad”, and at worst, “very, very bad” if the UK pulls out. She said it would hit British growth, investment and house prices.’

Kamal Ahmad then went on to say:

‘Step-by-step, the government believes the economic case is being made. Today, another expert and another grim warning.

GEORGE OSBORNE: A particular welcome to Christine Lagarde and her team. KA: The IMF argued house prices could fall, borrowing costs increase, and the government may have to raise taxes and cut public services further.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE International Monetary Fund: Thank you very much, Chancellor.

KA: I asked Christine Lagarde for the outlook if Britain left the EU.

CL: The consequences would be negative, if the UK was to leave the European Union. It would impact people’s life. So that means, higher prices. Less growth means less jobs, so higher unemployment.

KA: Does the Treasury influence you? Are you pushed by George Osborne to be as bleak as you can be about the effects of Britain leaving the European Union?

CL: The IMF does not get pushed around. What we do is we study their numbers. We assess the validity. We talk to many other people.’

Ahmad then included the comment about the importance of Lagarde’s intervention already noted at the beginning of the blog above, and then had a soundbite from a ComRes pollster, who said:

Any individual voice or report or organisation is unlikely to have a major impact that we will see in the polls tomorrow. It is more a cumulative effect, that they add up, the narrative grows and it makes voters stop and think just before they go and vote on referendum day.

This carefully chosen and edited comment added to the importance of what Lagarde and the IMF had said.

Overall, therefore, the BBC’s flagship television bulletin put heavy emphasis on the warnings from Sir John Major and Christine Lagarde, and both the newsreader narrative and the respective correspondent reports amplified strongly their ‘remain’ messages.  There were clear mentions in both sequences about Vote Leave opposition, but this was afforded much less weight than the ‘remain’ contributions. Of course, there is no requirement for every edition of a daily programme to be balanced – that can be achieved cumulatively according to the news agenda. But over two consecutive nights the main BBC bulletin put very strong weight on ‘remain’ warnings. On both occasions, there was only minimal effort to explore counter and no attempt to explore counter arguments. Equally, there was no inclusion of material that aired whether the Lagarde/Major/Carney warnings were being orchestrated or influenced by the EU itself. These items do not demonstrate conclusively in themselves that the BBC is biased in favour of the ‘remain’ case, but taken with other evidence on this site, suggest strongly that there is serious cause for concern about the way the ‘out’ case is being under-reported or downplayed, and about how the ‘remain’ case is being deliberately and systematically amplified.

This is the full transcript of the sequence:

 

 Transcript of BBC1 ‘News at Ten’ 13th May 2016, EU Referendum, 10.06pm

Introduction

FIONA BRUCE:   Also tonight: The gloves are off: Sir John Major tells senior Tories they should be ashamed and embarrassed by their fearmongering over the EU.

Main Story

FB:         Sir John Major has launched a stinging attack on senior Conservatives heading the campaign to leave the EU. The former Tory Prime Minister said the Justice Secretary Michael Gove should be embarrassed and ashamed of his anti-EU rhetoric. And he called on Boris Johnson and former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith to apologise for peddling false figures. The Leave campaign responded ‘the public will decide whether to stay in the EU, not politicians.’ Eleanor Garnier reports.

ELEANOR GARNIER:        He’s a big name making a big intervention. With less than six weeks until the vote, the former Prime Minister’s gots a warning for the Conservatives on the EU.

SIR JOHN MAJOR Former Prime Minister:             A quarter of a century ago, it bitterly divided my party.

EG:        And making his own case for staying in the EU, he attacked claims made by Tory colleagues, Boris Johnson, the former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan-Smith, and the Justice Secretary Michael Gove, that leaving the EU could save millions of pounds a week.

JM:        Those who make such demonstrably false claims, knowingly do so, need to apologise that they have got their figures so badly wrong and stop peddling a clear-cut untruth.

EG:        And he warned colleagues who he says are raising fear and prejudice with their arguments over immigration, that it’s a treacherous road to go down.

JM:        Some of the Brexit leaders morph into Ukip and turn to their default position, immigration. This is their trump card. I urge them to take care. This is dangerous territory that if handled carelessly, can open up long-term divisions in our country.

EG:        This is a significant intervention from the former Prime Minister. He’s naming people with ambitions to one day lead the Conservative party as reckless, and as this referendum campaign goes on the Tory-on-Tory attacks are getting more personal. The question – how united can and will the party be when all this is over?

DOMINIC RAAB Conservative, Vote Leave:           We have this week had the official statistics showing a massive underestimate in the amount of immigration from the EU into the UK. I think it would be irresponsible not to be talking about that, because there are issues people care about. The pressure on jobs and wages, the impact on the NHS and housing.

EG:        He rarely makes interventions, but this decision he says is final, and he’ll be hoping people are listening. Eleanor Garnier, BBC News, Westminster.

FB:         Another powerful voice arguing today for the UK to remain in the EU was the head of the International Monetary Fund. Christine Lagarde warned it could be at least “pretty bad”, and at worst, “very, very bad” if the UK pulls out. She said it would hit British growth, investment and house prices. Vote Leave campaigners say the IMF has been wrong before about the British economy and is wrong again. Our Economics Editor Kamal Ahmed reports.

KAMAL AHMED:              Step-by-step, the government believes the economic case is being made. Today, another expert and another grim warning.

GEORGE OSBORNE:        A particular welcome to Christine Lagarde and her team.

KA:        The IMF argued house prices could fall, borrowing costs increase, and the government may have to raise taxes and cut public services further.

CHRISTINE LAGARDE International Monetary Fund:          Thank you very much, Chancellor.

KA:        I asked Christine Lagarde for the outlook if Britain left the EU.

CL:         The consequences would be negative, if the UK was to leave the European Union. It would impact people’s life. So that means, higher prices. Less growth means less jobs, so higher unemployment.

KA:        Does the Treasury influence you? Are you pushed by George Osborne to be as bleak as you can be about the effects of Britain leaving the European Union?

CL:         The IMF does not get pushed around. What we do is we study their numbers. We assess the validity. We talk to many other people.

KA:        Another day in this referendum campaign and another major international organisation warns Britain about the economic risks of leaving the European Union. Of course, here in the Treasury, they are pretty pleased that the IMF has broadly backed George Osborne’s assessment and it’s not the last we are going to hear from the IMF. Just a few days before the referendum, they are going to produce a report which will talk about employment, house prices and the Brexit risk. It is thought it will be equally gloomy. Looking for votes, the Leave campaign on the road today with a message that the IMF had been wrong before and was wrong now.

PRITI PATEL MP Conservative, Vote Leave:           I don’t think we can take their forecasts at face value because of their background and also, on the basis that our economy is successful right now. I believe that if we vote to leave the European Union, Britain has a brighter, more secure and more prosperous future outside of the EU.

KA:        Shoreham on the south coast, here to ask the question, is anyone listening as everyone from the Bank of England to the IMF warns against leaving the EU?

VOX POP FEMALE:          Yeah, I would listen to that information and take it on board. It would help me make a decision.

VOX POP MALE:              Constantly, you are getting different information from one side to another. As a personal thing, no, I would not take any notice of it.

KA:        The governor of the Bank of England, the head of the IMF. There is evidence the economy is high up in the minds of undecided voters.

TOM MLUDZINSKI Director of Political Polling, ComRes:   Any individual voice or report or organisation is unlikely to have a major impact that we will see in the polls tomorrow. It is more a cumulative effect, that they add up, the narrative grows and it makes voters stop and think just before they go and vote on referendum day.

KA:        There is more to the UK economy than the referendum. The IMF said there were other long-term risks, high levels of household debt and low productivity. They will still be problems, however Britain votes on June 23. Kamal Ahmed, BBC News.

FB:         The BBC’s Reality Check team has been examining Christine Lagarde’s comments, and getting to the facts behind the claims on both sides of the referendum debate. You can find their work at bbc.co.uk/realitycheck.

FB:         There are signs tonight that the European Union’s efforts to stem the migrant crisis are beginning to have a significant impact. Numbers arriving from Turkey onto the Greek islands are down around 90% in April compared with the previous month, according to the EU border agency Frontex. It follows a deal struck between the EU and Turkey. But as our chief correspondent Gavin Hewitt now reports from Izmir, the deal is coming under pressure.

GAVIN HEWITT:              These are the Turkish beaches from where tens of thousands of refugees left for their perilous journey to Europe. Today, all that remains are discarded clothes. Almost no refugees are making the crossing to Greece. But the deal between Turkey and the EU to solve the migrant crisis is in danger of collapsing. Go into the fields near the Turkish coast close to Greece and you find Syrian refugees like Murat, who once dreamt of going to Europe but has given up. The Turkish-EU deal signed in March has all but blocked the migrant trail.

MURAD Syrian Refugee (translated) The sea border with Greece is now closed. If someone wants to go to Europe, they cannot. I did want to go, but now I can’t.

GH:        The Turkish coast guard patrols are much more rigorous. Just two months ago, 8,000 refugees crossed here in one month. So far in May, the numbers are around 300. And for those who make it to Greece, the route north through the Balkans is lined with fences and riot police.

PIHRIL ERCHOBAN Director, Association for Solidarity with Refugees:       There is no possibility to move further from Greece, and in Greece, the movement from the islands to the mainland became impossible now.

GH:        So, in Turkey, the tables where the smugglers did their deals are almost empty and the shops can’t sell their life jackets. The Turkish government says it’s honoured its part of the deal.

MUSTAPHA TOPRAK Governor of Izmir (translated) If the refugees go outside the cities where they’re registered, they’re told to go back. If they try to reach the coast and escape, the police will catch them.

GH:        The easing of the refugee crisis depends on a controversial deal between Turkey and the EU. Turkey clamping down on the migrants, in exchange for visa-free travel to much of Europe. But the European Parliament is insisting that first, Turkey must carry out further reforms. Turkey says it has done enough and the whole deal is looking fragile. So there is a risk of the migrant crisis returning. The developments are being followed closely in Germany, where most of the previous refugees went, and by the referendum campaigns in Britain. Gavin Hewitt, BBC News, Izmir.

 

 

 

 

Photo by Chatham House, London

Referendum Blog: May 14

Referendum Blog: May 14

IMMIGRATION BIAS: The fourth Newsnight special about the EU referendum was on May 10 from inside the Boston Stump in Lincolnshire, the town’s affectionate name for its stunning parish church.  The programme topic was immigration, and Boston was apparently chosen because it faces what Newsnight reporter Chris Cook claimed were ‘extreme’ pressures through a large influx of EU nationals.   Was the idea that such pressures elsewhere were ‘less extreme’?

What was very clear in the Stump was that there was a lot of local anger about immigration.  But from the outset, host Evan Davis’s main aim was to show that whatever locals thought, there were strong arguments that such an influx was vital to the economy.

The introductory section set the tone for the show. First off – from among the audience –  was Angie Cook, who explained that she had been forced out of business because her HGV driving agency faced impossible competition from a rival company staffed by immigrants on the minimum wage.    Evan Davis asked what she did now. The answer was a new ‘micro business’. But before she could say anything to explain this, or express her views about immigration or the EU, in a step that was clearly pre-planned, he was on to the next interviewee, Darren Bevan.

ED: Erm, Darren, Darren Bevan, where’s Darren? Darren, what’s been your effect of migration in this area?

DARREN BEVAN: From our perspective, as a business, the effect of migration has been a very positive one. Erm . . .

ED: It’s food processing, your business?

DB: It’s food processing, I work for a business just outside of Boston, erm, we’ve been around for about 15 years or so, we make a huge contribution to the local area, in terms of employment, but we also do employ a number of migrant workers.

ED: Now, have the, you see, Angie’s really saying, it’s going to be great for you because it has pushed the rates down. Has that been your experience? DB: It’s fair to say that it allows us to be competitive within our business arena. And any business, one of the key objective is to be competitive in your arena, yes.

Next up was Paol, an immigrant from Eastern or Central Europe, who was teaching English in a local school and said that he was very close to all the problems of migrants. He noted that they ‘commented a lot’ about these problems. Davis then spoke to his next carefully-prepared contributor, Carole Saxelby, the principle of a local girls’ school.  Like Darren Bevan, she was very pro-immigration. In her book, Eastern Europeans ‘add another dimension to our school’. She said:

‘…so I’m principle of Walton Girls’ School in Grantham and we have an amount of migrants in the school population, but we find that they integrate very, very well with our strong pastoral support system. Erm, and actually we’re quite used to a slight flux in our population, because we feed the . . . the RAF bases feed our school population as well. So, as regards education, I think as long as there’s strong and robust pastoral systems and there’s partnership at every level beyond outward facing academies, actually we’ve found the Eastern Europeans add another dimensional to our school.

ED: But what do they add, I mean, I can see that you can deal with the problems of language, but what . . .

CS: (speaking over) That’s right they . . . well, they add the cultural aspects, the work ethic, their parents contribute as well as the students, and they are part, very much part of the community, as all students are. And all students add a different dimension to academies, and that is the way it should be in outstanding high-performing academies. They all have a lot to contribute, they all have a lot to learn. And like I say, with a robust pastoral system, transition enables students to settle in very, very well and they achieve a lot

Davis then said:

Okay, well we’ve heard a number of perspectives there, and some of the themes we’ve just heard, we’ll be picking up on as we talk through the issue. And we’ll get more comments from the audience too.

Hardly.  The first contributor, Angie Cook, said that she had been forced out of business by low immigrant pay, but she was then abruptly cut off. Business owner Darren Bevan, in sharp contrast, had lots of space and was encouraged through Davis’ questions to trumpet the importance of immigrant labour and to say his business was booming because of it.  Paol the immigrant pointed firmly to that immigrants faced lots of problem when they came to Boston; and finally, a local headmistress opined that immigration enriched and enhanced the community, and that immigrants were hard-working and brilliant academically. What we had heard were the pro-immigration views of three people in the audience who thought strongly that immigrants enhanced Boston life, despite the problems they faced in coming there. We heard nothing at about the opinions of a woman who might well have thought otherwise about immigration.

Next came a scene-setting recorded report from Chris Cook. He was at pains to say that Boston’s experience of immigration was ‘very extreme’ and ‘all of those immigration effects are dialled up to extreme levels’.  Here, it is necessary to do some immediate fact-checking. A report based on 2011 census figures found that Boston’s rate of immigration was the highest in the country. The population had grown from 55,000 to 65,000, and the number of foreign-born residents (mostly from the EU) had increased by almost 450%. But was this ‘very extreme’ in terms of the numbers? Overall figures suggest otherwise, many parts of the country have had substantial increases not far short of that in Boston. To suggest Boston was wholly exceptional, as Cook did, was misleading.    He seemed to be bending over backwards to try suggest that any local views on the topic must be treated with caution because they were based on freak figures.

Another fulcrum of Cook’s report as contributions from councillors. Again, some fact-checking here yields interesting results. What Cook did not mention was the composition of the council – there are 12 Ukip members, 12 Conservatives, two Labour and a handful of independents, with the balance of power marginally in the hands of the Conservatives. That would suggest a high level of concern among local politicians about immigration – is that what Cook was insinuating when he suggested that the experience of immigration was dialled up to ‘extreme levels’, that a bunch of extremists ran the local council?

That said, the main political contribution in Cook’s report came from neither of the main parties, but from Paul Gleeson, a Labour man.

And he was not just any Labour councillor. Gleeson was one of around 400 such representatives who were so pleased that Jeremy Corbyn had been elected Labour lead that they added their names to his election website as ‘endorsers’.  Another contributor was from an ‘academic’, who, claimed Cook, were generally ‘usually quite positive’ about the impact of immigration.

This is what Cook’s chosen ‘academic’, Professor Christian Dustmann, said:

‘Well, we have done a study which now dates back some years, we were looking at the period between 1997 and 2005. And over that period what we found was that immigration held back wages at the very low end of the wage distribution. On the other hand, that impact was very, very small. It did increase wages further up the distribution and on average the impact of migration on wages was actually positive. From the evidence we have from a study which dates back a little bit further, we find, basically, very little evidence that immigration has done anything in terms of increasing unemployment.’

Then later on:

‘So immigrants to this country and in particular from Europe are actually very well educated. They are better educated than the average UK worker. However, that does not mean that they necessarily work from the very start of their migration history in highly skilled jobs. They very often downgrade because they’re downgrading, they are working jobs which are below their observed levels of education. Because they need some skills which are complimentary to their education. Such as for instance language skills. And they acquire these skills and then they very quickly upgrade to those jobs which are more in line with the education they bring with them.’

In other words, Dustmann’s role was to say that immigrants have a very positive impact. Is that what all academics think?  Emphatically not, as this posting on the News-watch website shows. Commenting on the methodology in the very study to which Dustmann referred, Professor of statistics at UCL Mervyn Stone said:

‘Most of the underlying crude assumptions that the all-embracing approach has been obliged to make have not been subject to sensitivity tests that have might been made if the study had not been so obviously driven to make the case it claims to have made.’

In other words, some academics, in direct contradiction of Cook’s claims, think that Dustmann’s report (from which Cook quoted) was based on twisted statistics and flawed methodology.

Here, the BBC has form, again outlined on the News-watch website. Cook simply repeated the same problems in the Corporation’s original coverage of the Dustmann report and exaggerated them by claiming wrongly that academics were generally positive about the impact of immigration.

Other elements of the Cook report were also biased.  There were two contributions from Vivien Edge, one of the local Ukip councillors, compared to five from the Corbyn-supporting Paul Gleeson. The latter’s main contribution was to say that the area had always been dependent on the labour of outsiders, and to claim that the latest influx was in order to make the local economy more efficient and effective. Edge was edited to say first that immigrants had problems with alcohol, and then that the country was over-run by immigrants and the country needed to get its borders back.    Cook used the latter point as a base for his conclusion:

‘There is a hard question for the Leave campaign to answer, though. Would immigration actually be lower post Brexit? It is certainly the case that if we were to leave the European Union, we would have an opportunity to recast our immigration policy. What we can’t say though, is what that immigration policy would actually be. So for example, it is quite plausible that a future British Government would cut a trade deal with the EU to get market access to that big market and part of the price of that would be much the same migration conditions as we have right now. Few other towns, or their annual fairs, have been so rejuvenated by new arrivals. Few enjoy such low unemployment. But few also face such congestion, or pressure on living standards. Most places are not Boston. So the effects of migration are more nuanced and much harder to spot.’

The guts of what he said was first to cast strong doubt on the idea that Brexit would allow changes in immigration policy; secondly that immigration had strongly benefitted Boston; and third, that although there were pressures in Boston as a result of the influx, what it faced was unusual (or ‘extreme’ as he had earlier said).

This was the bedrock of the discussion and audience interaction that followed. It was predictably skewed. Dissecting the opening sequence shows that both Cook and Davis were deeply biased in their approach. They appeared most focused on trying to play down or minimise the negative impact of immigration while at the same time bending over backwards to incorporate the views of those who thought it was beneficial. The choice of Christian Dustmann as the sole expert about immigration, and of Paul Gleeson as the main  local political  commentator,  underlined the extent of that bias.

 

Photo by Jules & Jenny

Referendum Blog: May 13

Referendum Blog: May 13

DOUBLE BIAS: Yesterday’s coverage by the BBC of stories related to the EU referendum showed deep bias against the Brexit case. On immigration there was bias by emission, and on economics there was bias by exaggeration and by not including the Brexit side sufficiently

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, elected to warn – on the basis of internal modelling – that if the UK voted to exit the EU, it could lead to a ‘technical recession’. This led the BBC1 bulletins at 6 and 10pm.  Economics editor Kamal Ahmad placed heavy stress on the importance of the warning and concluded that Carney and the Bank of England’s gloom was shared by many other leading economists and economic forecasters.  There were brief mentions at the beginning of the report that supporters of exit contested the claims, and there was a short clip of former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont stating that. But there could be no doubt that in the BBC’s estimation, this was a game-changing information. The focus was on showing that increasing numbers of authoritative figures were warning against Brexit, and that the exit side’s response was inadequate and limited.

In the same bulletins, another story that was relevant to the referendum debate was totally downplayed. Yesterday, the Daily Mail was among numerous news outlets reporting that the Office of National Statistics had released figures that confirmed that immigration from the EU to the UK was up to three times previous estimates. The report included this:

Former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith said the estimate showed migration was ‘running out of control’ and accused the government of trying to bury the news under other announcements.

‘The White Paper on BBC reforms was published today and David Cameron is hosting an international anti-corruption summit in London. They put it out on a day when they also put out something in the hope that you at the BBC will say ‘oh, we’ve got to really report the BBC’ and other bits they’re piling out. I’ve been in government long enough to know how these things are done,’ Mr Duncan Smith said.

His forecast proved to be correct. The heavy focus of BBC reporting yesterday (as well as on the Mark Carney comments) was on its own future, as is reported here. On BBC1 in the 6pm and 10pm bulletins, mention of the ONS figures was confined to a couple of sentences, and on the website, the main report on the figures here was focused on saying, in effect, that the claims by figures such as Ian Duncan Smith and John Redwood (who made similar points to IDS in the House of Commons) could be totally discounted because the ONS report dealt with temporary immigrants only.

Overall, the contrast between the handling of the Carney and immigration stories could not have been greater. The former was stoked up to the maximum extent so that the economic forecasting was elevated to major importance to show that Brexit was a dangerous option. The latter was heavily downplayed to the extent that the claims of Brexit campaigners were effectively rubbished on an official basis by the Corporation. Such efforts by the BBC to downplay the impact of EU immigration have been a constant feature of BBC reporting for many years, as previous News-watch reports have shown.

An exchange on the Today programme’s Business Update this morning illustrated the extent to which effort s are being made by the BBC to show that Carney’s warning should be taken seriously. This is the interview in full:

 

Transcript of BBC Radio 4, ‘Today’, 13th May 2016, Business Update, 7.19am

JOHN HUMPHRYS:          Is Europe growing? I mean, the European economy, I mean specifically the Eurozone economy, and that matters.  Lucy?

LUCY BURTON:  Yes, we’ve got figures on the Eurozone economy later today, and of course they’re important figures to look at, because it gives us an update on its health.  Last month flash estimates revealed GDP increased by 0.6% in the Eurozone, 0.5% in the wider EU. Well Dr Peter Westaway is the chief European economist from Vanguard Asset Management, he’s with us now, good morning.

DR PETER WESTAWAY:  Good morning.

LB:         What do we expect to see today and why?

PW:       I think we’ll probably see a repeat of the 0.6 number, when you get these second estimates they tended not to be changed very often.  If it is changed there is a possibility it will be downgraded, people were a bit surprised by the initial numbers and there’ve been some weak industrial production numbers out yesterday which could, could weaken it.  But, but broadly speaking I think we’ll see the same picture.

LB:         And one of the big questions people have been asking is whether the ECB is doing enough to support growth in the Eurozone, or whether it’s really run out of options.

PW:       Yes, it’s difficult to say.  I mean they’re, they’re really doing as much as they can at the moment, they’re now implementing quantitative easing, they’ve started buying, they’re going to start buying corporate bonds as well as government bonds in June, they cut interest rates into negative territory which was a big surprise at the time, they’ll probably not want to do any more of that, so . . . at the moment we’re in wait-and-see mode to see how effective that is, but . . . the jury’s out on whether they’ll need to do more.  Helicopter money is being bandied about as a possibility, that’s, that’s effectively printing money and giving it to people, which . . . I don’t think we’re going to see that in Europe, but it’s been talked about.

LB:         And of course, talking about growth, yesterday, the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said that’s something we can forget about if there is a vote to leave the EU. Now just how solid an estimate can that be, because, of course, it’s never happened before?

PW:       No it’s, it’s really speculating about the unknown, but I think, to be fair to Mark Carney yesterday, most commentators have been saying that if there were a vote to leave the EU it would have a major impact on volatility in markets, just because of the uncertainty that it would engender.  And indeed, we’re already seeing a little bit of softening in the numbers, simply because of that uncertainty . . . uncertainty already happening ahead of the referendum.

LB:         And the MPC, which is the Bank body that sets interest rates said it’s going to keep rates at present at the historic low of 0.5% – but they did say they’re ready to take whatever action is needed following the referendum.  Now, briefly, what does that mean?

PW:       Well, what’s interesting about the UK outlook at the moment is that we really are coming up to a fork in the road on June 23. I think if there is a vote to leave the EU it’s pretty likely that rates are going to stay low for a long time, they could even be cut again.  On the other hand, if we vote to stay in, then I think it’s entirely likely that the UK economy could see a bit of a rebound, we might even see interest rates rising by the end of this year.  So it’s a real binary situation at the moment.

LB:         Thank you very much, Dr Peter Westaway from Vanguard Asset Management.

 

Photo by Images George Rex

Referendum Blog: May 11

Referendum Blog: May 11

BENIGN EU?: At the heart of the BBC website’s EU coverage is a new animated feature by correspondent Damian Grammaticas that purports to give an objective two-minute overview of how the EU operates. This is the text of the feature in full:

DAMIAN GRAMMATICAS: The EU, as it says on the tin, is a union, a club, more than half a century old, now 28 nations. But how big is it? China is more than twice the size – so too in the United States of America. But compared to America, the EU’s population is far bigger, and its combined economies rival the US. The EU is the world’s biggest single market, people and goods, money and services flowing freely. And there’s the euro – now used by 19 nations and more than 300 million people. To make this market work, EU countries have removed some borders and pooled some decision-making. So who wields power? National leaders do, they gather regularly to take big decisions jointly, such as on the migrant crisis and set the EU’s priorities. Government ministers from each country do – they meet their counterparts every month, when they’re coordinating economic policy, it’s the Chancellor, George Osborne who goes. They, together with the elected European Parliament approve or reject any new laws. 10% of its members are from the UK. And to keep the EU running, are 55,000 civil servants. The UK government employs six times the number. Most of the EU’s civil servants work for the Commission. It’s independent of governments, draws up the laws, makes sure countries follow them. The European Court rules on any disputes and the Central Bank manages the euro. So what does the EU govern? Well, it has sole power to strike trade deals, makes competition rules like capping mobile roaming charges and fixes fishing quotas. The EU shares with member states the power to act in areas like the rights of workers and consumers, protecting the environment. And its powers are growing. It oversees banks in countries that use the euro, and monitors levels of national debt and deficit in all EU nations. Helps coordinate border controls, has a bill of rights for EU citizens, embassies around the world, even peace-keeping troops. So this union is economic, but political too, growing and changing all the time.

Where to begin unpicking how biased this is? The first overall point is that Grammticas avoids any mention that the EU is controversial. No mention, for example, that many believe that the operation of the European Commission is shrouded in secrecy and complexity. Nothing about the extent to which the EU is perceived to generate unnecessary regulations and directives. Nothing about that many fishermen believe that EU fishing quotas have wrecked the UK fishing fleet, or that the UK is repeatedly outvoted by the other EU leaders, and, indeed, on the 77 issues taken to a full vote since 1996, has been voted down every time.

On the other side of the coin, Grammaticas seems to actively play up the reasonableness and beneficial nature of EU operations. It caps telephone roaming charges, protects the environment, operates the world’s biggest single market so that people, good, money and services can ‘flow freely’. It works with governments in monitoring border controls, the rights of workers, the bill of rights for citizens and provides peace-keeping troops. Who would disagree with that?

Another issue is that Grammaticas constructs a picture of the EU’s modus operandi that makes it sound entirely democratic and fair. The members’ national leaders work closely with the European parliament to make and implement laws.  They are assisted in this process by’55,000 civil servants’, a total six times less than the UK’s government’s domestic civil service.   In this picture, The EU is doing the will of democratically elected figures, assisted by a civil service.  But critics entirely disagree.  First, the European Commission is not a ‘civil service’  It may have some of the functions, but is actually a supranational body with the power to frame laws and drive them through the EU structure so that are implemented.  The Council of Ministers cannot do so, and nor can the European Parliament – their powers are limited to making decisions about implementation. Further, the Commission’s main loyalty is not to member states, but to the EU itself. When Commissioners are appointed from the member states, they are required by EU law to swear an undertaking that their loyalties thereafter will be only to the EU.

All this adds up that Grammaticas has devised a strongly pro-EU feature. As with a similar snapshot exercise on World at One by Professor Anand Menon, it is deeply biased towards the EU and leaves out or glosses over key points that are what the opposition to the EU and desire for Brexit is based upon.   Not only that, this was expensive production with specially-commissioned graphics designed to show the EU in the best possible light.  It seems that the BBC is working behind the scenes to project the EU in the best possible light, to gloss over simplistically its shortcomings. In short, to pull the wool over the eyes of referendum voters.

 

Referendum Blog: May 9

Referendum Blog: May 9

WAR MONGERING?: Nick Robinson – for once – did a credible job this morning (9/5) in trying to pin down  foreign secretary Philip Hammond over David Cameron’s dire warning that exiting the EU could endanger peace and security in Europe, with the continent at the mercy of ‘forces of nationalism’ – a claim that led in the Daily Mail (for example) that he was saying that Brexit could lead to war.  Robinson’s first question, (or rather statement, because the interview was recorded) was:

[David Cameron] will go on to make an argument about the risk to the continent if we choose to leave. Well, a few minutes ago, I did speak to the Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond and I asked him if leaving the EU really could lead to war on the continent, perhaps he should begin by apologising to the public for holding a referendum with such enormous consequences.

Hammond immediately squirmied, and indeed, spent the next ten minutes in the prime 8.10am Today slot effectively side-stepping the point, as the transcript below shows. Robinson kept the interview on relatively narrow tram lines and it gradually emerged that Hammond was prepared only to say that the EU had a peace-keeping role; in his view, it was the newspapers that had, in effect, exaggerated the Prime Minister’s message by bringing the possibility of war into the equation.  Robinson rightly noted that it was the Prime Minister’s invocation of Churchill and Wellington that had been the trigger for that.

The full extent of Hammond’s obfuscation and slipperiness was revealed in this exchange:

NR: Well, I put to you again then the question that I opened with, which is: if it’s so serious, why on earth put this at risk by having an unnecessary referendum, and why did you, not much longer than a year ago, I think, say you were ready to vote to leave the EU in certain circumstances? PH: If there’d been no change, if there was no change of direction of the European Union (words unclear due to speaking over) NR: (speaking over) Sure, but as our Foreign Secretary, and as previous Defence Secretary, you were (fragment of word, unclear) willing to take the risk over peace and war, and you’ve changed your mind over a few welfare benefit changes? PH: Why are we having a referendum? Because this is a democracy, and because the European Union has changed significantly since we last voted on this issue in 1975, and it is right in a democracy, and clearly the will of the British people as we’re seeing from this robust debate today, that they should have a chance to express a view on this issue and it’s simply not acceptable in a democracy for the elite to say, ‘This is a question too important to put to the people.’ It’s not . . .

That said, Robinson’s approach to the ‘balancing’ interview towards the end of the programme (8.50am)  with government minister Penny Mordaunt was wholly different.  First, the exchange was much shorter than that with Hammond, and in consequence, she was not able to develop any effective rebuttals. Then Robinson described her during the exchange as a ‘relatively junior minister’ (thereby surely undermining her authority), and finally asked her to take part in a game of naming world leaders who agreed with the UK leaving the EU. Mordaunt attempted to say that there was a long list of senior military and intelligence figures who supported ‘leave’, and that leaders were concurring with David Cameron for the sake of diplomacy.   But before she could respond fully, or with any coherence to the substantive point, he wound the interview up.     Earlier Robinson asked if she accepted David Cameron’s argument that ‘at a dangerous and unstable time’ Brexit was bound to weaken the glue that held the nations of Europe together; whether the UK leaving would lead to other countries leaving too, and whether that was important; and finally, whether the UK leaving would make it easier to deal with tensions created by the Eurozone crisis and ‘migration’, Mordaunt managed to say in response that the EU was not delivering on security and prosperity because it did not allow nation states to thrive, and was causing fragmentation; that exit would allow the UK to control its own borders;  and that exit would be a catalyst for beneficial reform of the rest of the EU. But Robinson interrupted her frequently, and at no stage was she allowed to formulate detailed responses which answered the points raised by Robinson fully. By contrast, Hammond had plenty of space to put his arguments about the importance of the EU in keeping the peace. Overall, therefore, the two exchanges were not at all balanced. Most weight was put on the Cameron warning.  BBC editors thought the Cameron intervention was so important that they were already trailing it in the BBC1 bulletins on Sunday evening. Security correspondent Frank Gardiner was wheeled out to reinforce the gravity. In his estimation, ‘the most authoritative voices’ in the security establishment were also warning that leaving the EU would compromise the UK’s safety.

 

Transcript of BBC Radio 4, ‘Today’, 9th May 2016, Interview with Philip Hammond, 8.10am

NICK ROBINSON:             The Prime Minister is speaking just about now about that issue of Europe.  Now, you’ve heard many risks spelt out by both campaigns in this EU referendum, mortgages, for example, going up versus the suggestion that immigration will go up.  But the Prime Minister is going much, much further than that, arguing that there is really a risk to peace and security on the continent of Britain chooses to lose (sic, means ‘leave’?) it’s produced headlines claiming that Brexit could lead to war.  In a few minutes, I’ll be asking the Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, to explain just how that might be the case, but the Prime Minister, meanwhile, is just on his feet, let’s go live now, just to hear a little of what he’s got to say.

DAVID CAMERON . . . help decide the rules, the advantages of this far outweigh any disadvantages.  Our membership of the single market is one of the reasons why our economy is doing so well, why we’ve created almost 2.4 million jobs over the last six years, and why so many companies from overseas, from China, India, the United States and Australia and other Commonwealth countries invest so much here in the UK.  It’s one of the factors, together with our superb workforce, low taxes set by the British government, and our climate of enterprise which makes Britain such an excellent place to do business . . .

NR:        Well, there’s the Prime Minister making the more conventional argument, but he will go on to make an argument about the risk to the continent if we choose to leave.  Well, a few minutes ago, I did speak to the Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond and I asked him if leaving the EU really could lead to war on the continent, perhaps he should begin by apologising to the public for holding a referendum with such enormous consequences.

PHILIP HAMMOND:        The point that the Prime Minister is going to be making in the speech that he is giving this morning is that Britain is a European power, it has a vital interest in peace and stability on this continent and historically, whenever we’ve turned our back on Europe, whenever we’ve retreated into isolation, we’ve ended up regretting it and having to reinsert ourselves into the European equation because it’s essential for us to be there to protect our own interests, (fragments of words, unclear due to speaking over)

NR:        (speaking over) But he’s doing more than that, isn’t he?  He’s going further and saying that if we leave the glue that holds together European nations may be dissolved and that may end in conflict or war?

PH:        Well, what he’s doing is pointing out that although we in Britain have enjoyed peace and stability for many, many years, not all parts of the European continent have been that fortunate, not all parts have the deep and long democratic traditions that we have, not all parts are as stable as we are.  And he’s pointing out as well that the European Union is one of the institutions that ensures peace, stability and security in our continent, and he argues . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Can we spell it out though, is he arguing that, and are you arguing that not that there is an necessity of this, of course not, but there is a chance that is leaving the EU produces the conditions for conflict, a conflict that we in Britain are forced to intervene in?

PH:        Er, the point the Prime Minister is making is that the European Union, a strong European Union is an important contributor to peace and security in our continent, and if we . . .

NR:        (speaking over) It seems to me you’re reluctant to say it, forgive me, you’re willing the headlines that say they might be war . . .

PH:        (speaking over) Look, I didn’t, I didn’t write the headlines . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Er, you’re quoting Churchill, you’re quoting Wellington, you’re quoting the Duke of Marlborough in aid, and yet when I say, ‘Well, might it lead to war?’ you’re, ‘Oh, no, no, we’re not quite saying that.’

PH:        Well, I don’t write the headlines in some of our newspapers, what I’m saying is that the European Union is an important contributor to the stability and peace that we enjoy in Europe and that is in Britain’s interests, and history tells us that Britain is a European power, it’s a global power as well, but it’s a European power and it cannot turn its back on what’s going on in Europe, we have to be concerned about what’s going on in Europe.

NR:        Well, I put to you again then the question that I opened with, which is: if it’s so serious, why on earth put this at risk by having an unnecessary referendum, and why did you, not much longer than a year ago, I think, say you were ready to vote to leave the EU in certain circumstances?

PH:        If there’d been no change, if there was no change of direction of the European Union (words unclear due to speaking over)

NR:        (speaking over) Sure, but as our Foreign Secretary, and as previous Defence Secretary, you were (fragment of word, unclear) willing to take the risk over peace and war, and you’ve changed your mind over a few welfare benefit changes?

PH:        Why are we having a referendum?  Because this is a democracy, and because the European Union has changed significantly since we last voted on this issue in 1975, and it is right in a democracy, and clearly the will of the British people as we’re seeing from this robust debate today, that they should have a chance to express a view on this issue and it’s simply not acceptable in a democracy for the elite to say, ‘This is a question too important to put to the people.’ It’s not . . .

NR:        (speaking over) It’s hard to imagine Churchill saying, you know, ‘I think this could cause conflict in Europe, but never mind, let’s consider doing it.’

PH:        It’s a question that we should put to the British people.  We should have a robust debate about it, nobody on this side of the argument is suggesting that all the, all the arguments go one way, there’s a balance to be made, we believe that the balance of these arguments looking at Britain’s prosperity, future jobs, future economic growth, Britain’s security and safety and Britain’s influence in the world, clearly come down on the side of remaining in the European Union, that will make . . .

NR:        (speaking over, words unclear) your experience . . .

PH:        . . . stronger, safer and more prosperous.

NR:        Forgive me, but has your experience as, first Defence Secretary, then Foreign Secretary changed your mind?  You were a leading Eurosceptic, are there things that you’ve seen, conversations you’ve had, documents that’s crossed your desk, that have now made you think that the risk of Britain leaving is far, far higher – or is your side of the argument just to be a panic that it might lose?

PH:        It has, being Foreign Secretary has certainly changed my perspective.  I’ve visited 71 countries as Foreign Secretary and with my hand on my heart I can tell you that not in any one of those countries have the people I’ve been meeting told me that Britain would be a more influential power, Britain would be a more important partner to them if we were outside the European Union.  Quite contrary.  All of them have told me that they regard Britain as an important power in its own right, but they regard Britain’s influence and Britain’s importance is magnified by the fact that it is one of the leading powers in the European Union.

NR:        Let’s go to the kernel of this argument then about peace and security, you know, your former, your predecessor as Defence Secretary, Liam Fox would make this case, no doubt Boris Johnson will later, that it’s NATO that keeps the peace on the European continent, it is the binding of the United States in with the European countries that keeps is secure, not the EU?

PH:        Of course NATO is crucially important and will remain a member of NATO whatever happens, but NATO is essentially an outward-looking, war-fighting machine, and very, very important to us.  What the European Union does is operate to bind the nation states of the European Union together, through mechanisms for peace and security which work between those European Union states, and what the Prime Minister is saying . . .

NR:        (speaking over) But surely, surely Mr Hammond, surely Mr Hammond, you may have been able to make that argument in the first 20, 30 even 40 years of the EU, but far from binding the countries of Europe together at the moment, the crisis over the Eurozone, with people losing their jobs because of interest rates set to benefit Germany, the crisis over mass migration which is not being controlled and people are erecting fences across borders again, the EU is contributing to the sources of conflict, not ending them.

PH:        No, it’s that, but that’s a . . . er, if I may so, that’s a misanalysis.  The challenge of dealing with large scale migration flows in the continent of Europe, and we’re not in the Schengen area, so we’re not directly affected as other countries are, but that challenge would be there anyway, and the European Union gives as a mechanism for addressing that challenge.  Now, it’s not a perfect mechanism, and of course, tensions have risen as a result of the huge migratory flows that we saw last summer, but the European Union gives as a mechanism for containing and managing those threats, and we can’t, as the British people, just because we live on an island, turn our backs on those issues and say there nothing to do with us, they . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Let’s spell it out then.

PH:        They do affect us.

NR:        Yeah.

PH:        They do present us with risk, and we have to be engaged in resolving that problem.

NR:        (speaking over) I want you to spell out that risk. I, I accept, you know, you don’t want write headlines about war, let’s you spell out the risk then, if we leave, what then follows that could lead to conflict?

PH:        The European Union will be weaker without Britain inside it, and the mechanisms that maintain the peace and stability of the continent will be commensurately weaker, Britain . . .

NR:        (speaking over) But are you saying the democracies, because usually, we assume, democracies don’t go to war with one another, are you saying that if Britain leaves the . . . there would be a situation, suddenly, over a period of years perhaps, in which one country in the EU might go into conflict with another country in the EU despite the fact these are free, democratic countries.

PH:        What we, what we run the risk of is tensions rising in parts of Europe that perhaps do not have the deep and enduring democratic routes that we and our immediate neighbours have, and in the areas just outside the European Union, the Balkans for example, countries that are closely associated with the European Union that are applicant states, (fragment of word, unclear) would-be member states of the European Union, where the European Union has significant influence and significant ability to influence events, anything that weakens the European Union would weaken the forces of stability in those areas, that would be bad for Britain, bad for Britain’s security . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Sure, you made that point.

PH:        . . . and for Britain’s, er, role in the world.

NR:        A final thought for you: it is really quite extraordinary, isn’t it that a national leader who says that leaving the EU would be so fundamentally against our national interest, has chosen to put all this at risk simply to deal with the rise of UKIP and a rebellion in his own party?

PH:        We live in a democracy, er, Nick.  When we go into a general election, as a Tory I will be telling my voters that it is in the national interest to elect a Conservative government, that what the opposition parties proposing the government would be bad for Britain, but it is for the voters to decide.  And in this argument we are making the case for Britain being stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Foreign Secretary . . .

PH:        . . . but it’s the British people that will listen to the arguments, weigh them up and decide on balance where Britain’s best interests lies.

NR:        They will, and they’ll also listen to a junior defence minister who is coming on the programme later, who disagrees with that.  Philip Hammond, Foreign Secretary, thank you very much.

PH:        Thank you.  

Transcript of BBC Radio 4, ‘Today’, 9th May 2016, Interview with Penny Mordaunt, 8.50am

NICK ROBINSON:             Now, in the last few minutes the Prime Minister has used a speech to argue that a vote to leave the EU would endanger peace and security in Europe, and arguing that history shows Britain can’t stand aside from conflict on the continent.  Challenging the Prime Minister’s arguments is a woman he appointed to be a defence minister, Penny Mordaunt, she’s part of the Vote Leave campaign, and she joins us from our Westminster studio, morning to you.

PENNY MORDAUNT:      Good morning.

NR:        Do you accept the core of the Prime Minister’s argument that at a dangerous time, and unstable time, Brexit is bound to weaken the glue that holds the nations of Europe together?

PM:       No, I do not.  The Leave campaign want to drag the Prime Minister back to the issues that matter today, our borders, the security risks that come from accessing countries and to our operational security and what we need to keep our country safe today, the Prime Minister . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Sure, but let me drag you back to his argument, though . . .

PM:       (speaking over) Yes, the Prime Minister today is, is trying to tap into a . . . a vision, which I think we all share, of nations living in peace, looking West, er, secure and prosperous.  What is being debated though is that the EU is a) necessary to that, and I would actually argue that its current trajectory is absolutely counter to that.  At the same time, he’s telling us that we are heading for war if we leave, the EU is denying us the tools we need to protect our own citizens, and at the same time . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Look, there’s evidence, there’s evidence against you in this sense, isn’t there, which is in a poll Ipsos MORI have done right across the EU, what would be the response of the peoples of Europe to Brexit, they would demand their referendum, and more people would demand to get out the EU.  Now, what would be interesting to know is do you welcome that, do you think yes, let’s get, let’s get other countries at the EU, or do you hope they’ll all stay together and will just walk away?

PM:       Well, I think it, it, it’s worth asking why those countries are, are saying that, it is because . . .

NR:        (interrupting) But forgive me, I’m asking you whether it’ll happen, not why.

PM:       No, well, I think we ought to be looking at why.  Look the, the reason why the EU is not delivering, either on security or economic prosperity is it . . . because it is not doing what its nation states need in order to thrive. Erm, it is causing tremendous fragmentation, the rise of far right politics all the things that the Prime Minister are warning us could happen if we leave, are here now today.

NR:        And you (fragment of word, unclear) arguing that it would make things better, those, all those tensions created, nobody denies it, by the Eurozone crisis, all the tensions created by the migration crisis – you are arguing that if one of the principle democracies in the world, one of the biggest military powers, one of the greatest economic power (sic) votes to leave, that will somehow reduce those tensions?

PM:       I think it will, because of very, very (word unclear due to speaking over ‘confident’?) reasons . . .

NR:        (speaking over) How?

PM:       Firstly, we will be able to get back control of our own borders, that is absolutely fundamental to our own security . . .

NR:        (speaking over) No, that’s good for Britain, and you’ve made that argument day after day.

PM:       (speaking over) Yes, but . . .

NR:        What happens in Europe is what I’m asking you.

PM:       (speaking over) But also, as well as it being a better deal for the UK, it will give the remaining EU states a catalyst for reform.  You could see, to the tail end of the Prime Minister’s negotiations, other nations saying, ‘do you know, actually that sounds very sensible, we ought to have some of that to,’ we have tried . . .

NR:        (speaking over) So your message to Europe is, is, is . . .

PM:       (speaking over) We have tried . . .

NR:        . . . we’re walking out the club just to help you.

PM:       No, we have tried absolutely everything to get the EU to reform from within, this is our last chance I think to get it to start to get back to its democratic principles, to actually start doing what its nation states need, both in terms of security and economic prosperity, unless we have . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Can I ask you one last question if I may . . .

PM:       Certainly.

NR:        Well, with respect and you are a relatively, you know, junior minister, fairly new to this, can you name a single world leader who agrees with you on this, and let’s leave Donald Trump out shall we?

PM:       (laughs) Look, no head of state or Prime Minister or President is going to want to annoy our Prime Minister . . .

NR:        (interrupting) What, they’re all saying what they don’t believe . . .

PM:       (speaking over) there are a . . . no . . . there is . . .

NR:        . . . because they’re being diplomatic.

PM:       There is a big, long list of admirals, generals, er, the former head of the CIA, former head of MI6 who think that we will be safer if we leave the EU, rather . . .

NR:        (speaking over) Just not every other world leader.

PM:       No, but rather than trade job titles, the public want the arguments, that’s what . . .

NR:        Okay.

PM:       . . . we need to give them, why we’ll be safer, we need control over our borders, we need the EU to stop undermining our security relationships with the Five Eyes . . .

NR:        (speaking over) We’ve got to leave it there, I’m afraid. Penny Mordaunt . . .

PM:       . . . that’s why we’ll be safer out.

NR:        Thank you for your time.

Photo by DFID – UK Department for International Development

Referendum Blog: May 7

Referendum Blog: May 7

PEACE MYTH (CONTINUED): The concluding part of Newsnight’s European Dream series, presented by Gabriel Gatehouse, confirmed that this was based entirely on the EU’s own roseate version of its history. In reference to Robert Schuman and Jean Monnet, the EU’s chosen founding fathers, he declared at the beginning of part three:

GABRIEL GATEHOUSE: Out of the ruins of war arose a vision of Europe.

ROBERT SCHUMAN 1950: It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.

GG: The founding fathers dreamt of ever closer union.

GEORGES BERTHOIN Jean Monnet’s Chief of Staff: All governments wanted to remain half free.

GG: The goal was peace. But also prosperity. What’s become of the European dream?

In the analysis that followed, Gatehouse explored the problems of the euro and described how it had helped Germany to achieve export-led growth but caused acute misery in Greece. He pointed out that the UK had opted out and the euro, and suggested that the current ‘rift’ within the EU was based on that Germany embraced enthusiastically the single currency (and the creation of the European Union at Maastricht), while the UK did not; there, it had ‘split parties’. He concluded:

It’s been more than 65 years since Europe set out upon a journey that has led to today’s complex union of 28 member states. But from the very beginning the founding fathers identified one country as key to the European project.

GEORGES BERTHOIN: We wanted to give Germany a path to recovering their sovereignty, with us, not against us. Making sure that the German recovery would not become a threat, but an asset. And this is what happened. It just happened that the most powerful country in Europe believes in Europe, the European dream.

GG: And so we are back where we were at the beginning of our series…Whatever you think about the post-war European project, its greatest achievement surely is this: that it does now seem inconceivable for any member of the union to take up arms against another. If the European dream is peace then the EU has succeeded. But as Europe struggles to find common responses to the crises of the 21st-century, it’s clear: the EU is today about more than peace. The question is, how much more? That’s the issue that now divides this continent.

So in Gatehouse’s book, the EU has unquestionably been a success in its primary purpose: the generating and maintaining peace. As noted in the previous blog on this series, this is pure EU propaganda. The reality is that Jean Monnet’s goal, as first expressed in the 1920s, was the pulling together – at any price – of the European countries under an undemocratic supranational authority (what became the Commission). He and his cohort wanted above all the creation of a utopian, socialist Europe. They saw that framing this is the name of ‘peace’ would make such an idea difficult, if not impossible, to resist. The corollary is that anyone who challenges the need for the EU is putting peace at risk.

Photo by Karva Javi

Referendum Blog: May 6

Referendum Blog: May 6

MORE HISTORICAL BIAS:  Newsnight has been looking this week at the history of the EU in a three-part series called The European Dream.  As in other similar programmes – Europe Them or Us on BBC2, and The Inquiry on the World Service – it was pro-EU propaganda closely mirroring myths projected by the EU itself.

Gabriel Gatehouse claimed that the moves towards what became the EU were led in 1950 by a man who had a vision, Jean Monnet, who ‘in the broken remains of post war Europe’ set that vision ‘in motion’ by working with the French foreign minister, Robert Schuman.   He said the idea was ‘to bind the economies of Europe so tightly that war would become impossible’.

Gatehouse also maintained that his goal was ‘a continent prosperous and at peace’ and that Monnet and Scuman took the first steps towards ‘de facto solidarity’. He then spoke to Georges Berthoin, who was said to have been with Monnet as the plans for what became the EU were put together. Berthoin amplified the EU myths. He said that the ‘dream was to make peace among European countries stable and credible’; and that the aim was ‘not only to rebuild Europe but also to modernise Europe’.

Outside this EU version of its history, for example in The Great Deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North, a very different picture emerges.  It is true that Jean Monnet played probably a crucial role in founding the Iron and Steel Confederation – the body that laid the foundation stones for The Treaty of Rome in 1957 –  but his motivation is strongly challenged in other sources.

First, Monnet’s vision was not formed after 1945. He had been advocating European unity since at least 1917, and his ideas were rooted in socialist Utopianism.  Second, his methodology was based entirely on ruthless realpolitik rather than starry-eyed idealism. At the heart of his mission was the creation of a federal Europe. A crucial part of his plans was a supranational body that took away powers from national governments. He wanted that body to be run for the benefit only of ‘Europe’ by civil servants, and to be outside the democratic process.

Second, the reality was that in 1950, Monnet’s plan was only adopted because France, Germany and the United States could not agree how to move forward towards a more harmonious economic future. Monnet pitched his plan for the Iron and Steel Confederation into a policy vacuum, but it was carefully phrased so that the true intent was disguised. Schuman adopted the plan out of desperation rather than ideological desire.

The UK – then under the socialist Attlee government – was kept in the dark until the last minute, and when it did grasp what was being proposed, immediately said it could not support Monnet’s plan. The Cabinbet was deeply alarmed that it presented a huge threat to British sovereignty, and that it would severely compromise national security to hand over control of the iron and steel industries (then employing more than 1million Britons) to an unelected supranational body.

Gatehouse, of course, did not have time to go into such detail. But his version of EU history glossed over vital facts and presented simplistically the EU version of its own history. At a time of intense debate about the UK’s role in the EU, this was serious bias in that he presented a picture of a benign EU only there because its purpose was to create and maintain peace.

 

The transcript of the first programme is below:

PART ONE: EVER CLOSER UNION, 3 May, 10.43pm

EVAN DAVIS:      Well we all know that while this Thursday is important, there is another vote coming along on Thursday, June 23rd, which will have a big shape on party politics too. To help you think about the EU, we’re taking a step back this week, with three films that look at the grand vision of the EU founding fathers, and what has been achieved. The themes of peace and prosperity were to be delivered by among other things, ever closer union, free movement of people and monetary union. How’s it going? Well, we sent our reporter Gabriel Gatehouse in search of the European dream.

GABRIEL GATEHOUSE:   If the European Union has a birthplace, then it is here. In this little cottage in a woodland west of Paris. If the EU has a founding father then it is this man. Jean Monnet. In the broken remains of post-war Europe, together with a trusted circle of advisers, over coffee and cognac and fireside chats, they dreamed of a continent prosperous and at peace. Jean Monnet had a vision in this house. And from here he set the whole European project in motion. But what has become of that original vision? Over the next three nights we’re going to be asking what state of health is the European dream in today? (TITLE CARD: THE EUROPEAN DREAM Part One: Ever Closer Union.) Jean Monnet had an idea. To bind the economies of Europe so tightly that war would become impossible. He took his plan to the French Foreign Minister. Together they formulated the Schuman Declaration.

ROBERT SHCHUMAN 1950:           Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.

GG:        Those early Europe builders began by pooling production of coal and steel, it was the first step towards that de facto solidarity. It would lead, they hoped, to a federation of Europe. There aren’t many of that generation left today, but in an apartment in the 17th arrondissement of Paris, we found one. Georges Berthoin is the last surviving member of Jean Monnet’s original cabinet at the European Coal and Steel Community .It was the first institution out of which would grow the European Union.

GEORGES BERTHOIN Jean Monnet’s Chief of Staff:            The dream was to make peace among European countries stable and credible. Then there was another element, the element was prosperity. So the problem was not only to rebuild Europe but to modernise Europe and in this respect we were looking at the example of the United States of America and especially the size of the market.

GG:        Peace and prosperity, that was the goal. Five years later, six countries would sign the Treaty of Rome, establishing the European Economic Community. But the ambition was for a much closer union.

GB:         The Schuman Declaration was the first step towards a European federation. When we started, we thought at the time that we were going to start something and we thought at the time that we were going to accede to all things including political development, within ten years.

GG:        And so it happened that France and Germany formed the central axis of a European Union. And they enjoyed decades of peace and prosperity. A de facto solidarity among member nations. This is Breisach on the Rhine in Germany. Across the river, Neuf-Brisach in France. The French built these fortifications to guard against attacks from the German side. These two towns that saw three wars in 70 years are now the heartland of the European Union. Here then are two towns from opposite banks of the Rhine. They are living together in peace, their citizens can travel freely backwards and forwards across this bridge. And whatever side they happen to find themselves on, they can pay for stuff in a common currency. In so many ways this is exactly what the European project has always hoped to achieve. Over the decades Europe brought with it all sorts of benefits. Jobs, common rights and protections for workers, but you don’t have to dig very deep here to discover that the river still divides. On the French side, around Neuf-Brisach, there were once many factories. This one used to produce pistons for the European car industry. But in 2013 high labour costs forced it to close.

FABIENT SIMON Demolition worker:        Taxes in France are too high. Labour costs are too high. That’s why businesses here are moving to Eastern Europe.

GG:        Unemployment in this part of France is around 10% and rising. GDP is well below the European average. For these French workers overseeing the demolition of their own factory, the EU today means seeing their jobs move to new member states in Eastern Europe. There was a dream, a European dream, in the 1950s, 1960s, about peace and prosperity. Do you think that dream is still alive?

DOMINIQUE GERBER: Demolition Worker:             I think no, peace is here in Europe, but prosperity I think no. In Germany I think a little prosperity but here in France, no.

GG:        Indeed, back across the river in German Breisach, they have full employment. The citizens of this region, Baden Wurtenberg, are among the richest in the EU. Just up the road from Breisach, we stumble across what appears to be the most pro-European place on the continent. Is this the stuff that dreams are made of? Welcome to Europa Park. Meet Euro Mouse, the mascot of this Europe in microcosm. Nestled among the roller-coasters are many of the member states. Scandinavia, Portugal, Greece, which includes Pegasus, Cassandra’s curse, and the flight of Icarus. There is even a British section. Black cabs, fast-food, and Shakespeare. Who knew the EU could be such family fun? Which is your favourite bit of the park?

VOX POP FEMALE:           Our favourite bit is Scandinavia, I think. Scandinavia, all right. The wooden roller-coasters. I like England, but the thing is you haven’t got a lot of variety.

GG:        The history of Europa Park reads like a sort of German industrial fairy tale. It was founded by the Mack family, stalwarts of German manufacturing since the late 18th century. The park opened its doors in 1975, inspired by the vision of a United Europe.

MICHAEL MACK Europa Park We chose Europe and we think it was the best way to go, even though nobody believed that that time Europe would be as big as it is today.

GG:        As much of Europe struggles with an economic crisis, in Germany the dream of prosperity still burns brightly. Today nearly half the park’s workers are from other EU nations.

MM:      We are growing really fast. We are about to open a water park in 2018. We need another 700 employees, so it is quite difficult because the unemployment rate is so low in this area.

GG:        You cannot find the workers?

MM:      You cannot find the workers.

GG:        Despite Europe’s economies pulling in different directions its nations are today united in peace. Back on the road, we drive through Verdun. Verdun is to the French what The Somme is to the British. 100 years ago hundreds of thousands of young men lost their lives in these fields. Along the roads that wind through Europe’s heartland, history lurks around every bend. Strasbourg. The city was once fought over. It is now at the heart of the European project. The home of the European Parliament. Throughout the EU’s development, from its beginnings in coal and steel, through the Treaty of Rome, the single European act, the Maastricht Treaty, the direction of travel has been one-way. Towards ever closer union.

GEORGES BERTHOIN:     Maybe it was a bit naive but we thought we were in a position to change European history. It sounds a bit stupid. But we believed in that. You know, at that time, we had the backing of public opinion on the continent. Because the experience and the tragedy of the war was in everybody’s personal history. I use the expression, but it was not one we used at that time, to build a kind of United States of Europe.

GG:        These days, if you say you support a United States of Europe, you might as well commit political suicide. Even here, in Strasbourg. These young activists are handing out leaflets for a by-election later this month. Last time round they took a third of the votes. This time they’re hoping to win. They are the Front National.

JULIA ABRAHAM Front National You know, I was born in 1992.

GG:        You were born in 1992?

JA:          And it was the year of the Treaty of Maastricht. And so we have not known this European dream. All we have known it’s only unemployment, the taxes, and all the disadvantages of this European Union. We have not known this European dream. For us it has been a failure.

GG:        The Front National is booming. A year from now, its leader Marine Le Pen could become president of France. She has promised to follow Britain’s lead and hold a referendum on EU membership. Julia says she will vote out.

JA:          We need to find back our borders, our sovereignty, our national freedom. To respect our own laws, which are not the same as in Germany or in Italy or Spain.

GG:        Some people worry that a party like yours is leading Europe back towards nationalism, back towards the place where it was in the 1930s.

JA:          You’re right, the European Union is leading us back. That is the problem. It is the European Union that creates unemployment and violence and insecurity.

GG:        The original founders of the EU had a dream. Of creating peace and prosperity through an ever closer union of nation states, based on common interests and common values. The thing about ever closer union is that it presupposes a corresponding weakening of individual national identity. Now it may be that the founders of the European Union thought that by the time we got to the second decade of the 21st century, the nation state would be a concept that had had its day. Well, it looks like they were wrong. Across Europe the politics of identity is on the rise. Tomorrow night we will be looking at borders. How the fall of the Iron Curtain led to a Europe more united than ever and how a quarter of a century later, the continent is in crisis over one of the cornerstones of the European dream, freedom of movement.

ED:         Gabriel Gatehouse there, Europe past and present.

Photo by waltercolor

Referendum Blog: May 5

Referendum Blog: May 5

MORE EU PROPAGANDA: Previous News-watch blogs have shown how Nick Robinson’s BBC2 programme Europe: Them and Us presented a false history of the EU in line with the EU’s own self-perpetuated myth that its existence has been an essential ingredient in keeping the peace since the Second World War. Listeners to BBC World Service have this week been heard their own concentrated version of the same propaganda, in an edition of The Inquiry called ‘What Happened to the European Dream?’  The full transcript is below.  The first part of the programme was about the founding of the EU. Presenter James Fletcher first spoke to Professor Desmond Dinan, who was introduced as being the holder of the Jean Monnet chair at the George Mason University in the US. What he did not say is that this is one of hundreds of such professorships round the world set up by the EU to study ‘European integration’ under the Jean Monnet project, and is a building block of Union’s massive propaganda project to convince the world – and figures such as the US President – that the EU is vital to peace in Europe. Professor Dinan did not disappoint.  He delivered a masterclass in the EU myth. This is what he declared that Monnet and his colleagues had delivered immediately after the war:

I think they were pragmatic.  It was an arrangement between countries which meant that war would not happen again and which meant also that countries would be not only peaceful but that they would be prosperous and that economic development and economic success in each country was not a zero-sum game, that all countries in Europe could prosper together and be peaceful together.

This was followed a few sentences later by:

And what cut through the Gordian Knot of this particular conundrum was Jean Monnet’s proposal to establish European-wide Coal and Steel Community.  So, what the European Coal and Steel Community did was two-fold.  First of all, it addressed very particular economic resource allocation problem.  And second, it built trust, because it required countries participating in it to hand over responsibility, national resource ability to a supranational authority, to make key decisions in these very important economic sectors.

Dinan’s first major propaganda point – writ large – was that the EU was set up to ‘look beyond a narrowly-defined self-interest’, then the second, that an essential ingredient was that a supranational body was required to make key decisions (the unelected and unaccountable European Commission, of course).

In the second part of the programme, Fletcher spoke to another ‘authority’ on EU history: Professor Sara Hobolt, from the London School of Economics.  Her credentials?  Exactly the same as Professor Dinan.  She holds the ‘Sutherland Chair in European Institutions’ and is also funded by the European Union Studies Association. He academic record includes dozens of publications about topics such as public attitudes towards integration. He role was to explain what had happened from the 1970s after Monnet had started the brilliant EU dream. As with Dinan, her focus was the importance of the EU, starting with:

The thing that happened in the 70s is really what has sometimes been referred to as the sort of European dark ages, or the dark ages of European integration.  A long period where there was no real integration in Europe.

Of course. Not enough integration.  At this point Fletcher colluded with the propaganda. He declared:

In the 60s and 70s, the Coal and Steel Community had expanded to become a broader trading area, known as the European Economic Community, and had admitted new members like the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark.  But the tension we heard about from our first expert witness, between national sovereignty and further political integration had slowed moves towards greater economic cooperation. 

Hobolt continued the propaganda with another observation that may have surprised Margaret Thatcher and the vast majority of Eurosceptics. She said:

Now, what we come to in the early 80s was a new dynamism, and a new willingness to bring European nations closer together both in terms of economic integration and also in terms of institutional reform.  So, the sort of golden era of European integration really goes there from 1995 and up to the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in ’91.

And then she moved on to Jacques Delors, who was:

….a visionary, he had a vision for closer economic and political integration, bringing nation states together, but not necessarily, sort of, a European superstate, that would supersede nation states to the extent that they wouldn’t exist.

Delors the superstar. Further analysis would be more of the same. The reality is that this programme, in the key area of the development of the EU, was one-sided pro- EU propaganda provided by figures whose job is to collaborate with EU myth-making.  They delivered in spades. That the BBC should have made a programme of this nature during the referendum campaign is  highly questionable, and appears to be in direct contravention of the BBC’s own Referendum Guidelines. The audience was led to belief that Dinan and Hobolt are authoritative, objective sources on the subject of EU history. But they are not.

 

Transcript of BBC World Service, The Inquiry, ‘What Happened to the European Dream?’ 3 May 2016, 3.06am

JAMES FLETCHER:           This week: what happened to the European dream? On June 23rd this year, British voters will go to the polls. On the ballot will be a simple question: should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union. No matter the result, the mere fact that for the first time in 40 years a member country is seriously considering leaving is a sign of the problems Europe is facing.  Across the continent anti EU political parties are on the rise. In April, Dutch voters rejected an EU deal with Ukraine. Even the president of the European Commission admitted recently that the EU project had lost part of its attractiveness. Bureaucrats are fond of phrases like ‘The European Project’ – but what does it actually mean and has lost its shine?  This week, we’re asking what happened to the European dream? (music)

FEMALE ANNOUNCER: Part One: A continent rebuilds.

NEWSREEL MONTAGE:  Pointing to Western Europe as a shattered ruin from which great masses of the people could never hope to rise without American a . . . France had miraculously emerged from general strikes which paralysed her national life.  But civil war had barely been averted.

PROFESSOR DESMOND DINAN:  Those days were grim, the circumstances were bad, Europe faced an enormous challenge of reconstruction immediately after the war.

JF:          Our search for the European dream begins in the aftermath of World War II.

DD:        And the men who would go on to become the so-called founding fathers of the European Community were very much immersed in that challenge.

JF:          Professor Desmond Dinan works at George Mason University in the United States, where he holds a chair named after one of those founding fathers, French civil servant Jean Monnet.

DD:        He had worked for the League of Nations in the late 20s and early 30s, he had worked for the French government, so he was very well known internationally, and he had never stood for elected office, he preferred to operate in the background, that’s how he pushed the goal of European integration forward.

JF:          Monnet’s main partner in France was government minister Robert Schuman who had been part of the French resistance with a price on his head.

DD:        Schuman was an experienced foreign minister, very committed as Monnet was to try to find a new way to manage relations between states and especially between France and Germany.

JF:          Monnet and Schuman were part of a group of European statesmen all in their 60s and 70s who had all lived through turbulent times.

DD:        They had experienced not just the Second World War but the entire inter-war period, and indeed, the First World War as well.  So for them, throughout their careers Europe had been in chaos, war, recession, unemployment was the norm.  They wanted to change that; they wanted to break that cycle.

JF:          And so how would you express what they came up with.

DD:        I think they were pragmatic.  It was an arrangement between countries which meant that war would not happen again and which meant also that countries would be not only peaceful but that they would be prosperous and that economic development and economic success in each country was not a zero-sum game, that all countries in Europe could prosper together and be peaceful together.

ROBERT SCHUMAN Speaking French, over music.

JF:          In 1950, Robert Schuman gave a speech proposing the creation of what would eventually become the European Union.  He talked about avoiding war and the importance of economic development.  Peace and prosperity.  Professor Dinan says this was the founding dream.  Of course, dream is just a dream unless you can figure out a way to make it a reality.

DD:        They saw this challenge, not just as a diplomatic challenge or a challenge of international relations, they saw it also, and this is very important, as an economic challenge.

JF:          Coal and steel were the key resources as Europe rebuilt after the war.  The problem for France was that Germany had most of the coal.  Being on the side of the victors, some in France advocated simply taking the coal from Germany.  But keeping Germany down wasn’t consistent with those goals of peace and prosperity.  So, it was clear that nations like France would have to look beyond their narrowly-defined self-interest.

DD:        And what cut through the Gordian Knot of this particular conundrum was Jean Monnet’s proposal to establish European-wide Coal and Steel Community.  So, what the European Coal and Steel Community did was two-fold.  First of all, it addressed very particular economic resource allocation problem.  And second, it built trust, because it required countries participating in it.  To hand over responsibility, national resource ability to a supranational authority, to make key decisions in these very important economic sectors.

JF:          Economic cooperation required political institutions to make it work.  European bureaucracy which stood above national governments and took some of their powers away from them.  So, from the beginning, signing up to Europe meant link wishing some national sovereignty.

DD:        Monnet described the Coal and Steel Community as a functional economic approach to greater European integration, but his hope was that this would result in policy spillover, that as countries cooperated very closely in one or two economic sectors that their cooperation and collaboration inevitably would spill over into other sectors.

JF:          So we’ve heard how the European dream was for peace and prosperity, achieved through economic cooperation.  The vehicle for this was the Coal and Steel Community, but crucially, that was seen by some as just the beginning.

FEMALE ANNOUCNER:   Part two: the golden age.

SARA HOBOLT:  The European Union has always been this fascinating experiment of change, a political experiment.

JF:          Our second expert witness is Sara Hobolt, originally from Denmark, now at the London School of Economics.

SH:        The thing that happened in the 70s is really what has sometimes been referred to as the sort of European dark ages, or the dark ages of European integration.  A long period where there was no real integration in Europe.

JF:          In the 60s and 70s, the Coal and Steel Community had expanded to become a broader trading area, known as the European Economic Community, and had admitted new members like the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark.  But the tension we heard about from our first expert witness, between national sovereignty and further political integration had slowed moves towards greater economic cooperation.

SH:        Now, what we come to in the early 80s was a new dynamism, and a new willingness to bring European nations closer together both in terms of economic integration and also in terms of institutional reform.  So, the sort of golden era of European integration really goes there from 1995 and up to the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in ’91.

JF:          The Maastricht Treaty is important, and will tell you more about it in a minute.  But first, let’s hear about the driving force behind this so-called golden era – Jaques Delors.

SH:        He was a visionary, he had a vision for closer economic and political integration, bringing nationstates together, but not necessarily, sort of, a European superstate, that would supersede nation states to the extent that they wouldn’t exist.

JF:          Delors was a Socialist politician and former Minister of economics in France.  In 1985, he became President of the European Commission, then and now, Europe’s executive body.

SH:        If you go back to the early years of integration, integration was very much about removing tariff barriers, but Jacques Delors as a Socialist was also one who wanted a more social dimension, this more, what we might think of as a welfare state at the European level, and add a political dimension to European integration.

JF:          He started by furthering the original European dream: economic integration.

SH:        What he did first was about the completion of the single market, establishing a common geographical area where companies can trade with each other without any kind of barriers to trade, but also they established sort of common external borders and tariffs, so they have a common policy vis-a-vis the rest of the world in terms of how difficult they see it is for the world to trade with this area.

JF:          The single market was considered a success, and that meant Delors wanted to go further – towards establishing a single currency.

SH:        Now, of course, I’m sure he wasn’t unaware that once you have a single currency there will also be pressure for more common fiscal policy.

JF:          Fiscal policy means taxes and spending – pretty fundamental functions of national governments.  Establishing a single currency was an ambitious step, that would require European states to give up much more control over their own affairs.

SH:        So what he proposed was a three-stage roadmap.

JF:          Stage I was the Maastricht Treaty in the early 90s.

ARCHIVE NEWS REPORT:             Fanfare at Maastricht as the governments of the 12 reassembled here two months after the haggling of the summit which finally produced the treaty now ready for signature – a treaty charting the European Community’s course closer to that of a superpower, with agreements on monetary union, moving towards a common foreign and defence policy, and increasing the Community’s scope to make law for all member states.

JF:          Maastricht also brought in a significant name change The European Economic Community dropped the ‘Economic’ and became part of the European Union.  Jacques Delors had taken Europe deep into political territory, and a long way from the dark ages we heard about earlier. (music)

SH:        That was the high watermark, you know, it was the establishment of an economic union, the prospect of a political union and all forces were sort of joined to say we are creating, you know, this grand new project. (music, with lyrics, ‘Unite tonight – Europe’ and applause)

FEMALE ANNOUNCER:   Part three: Overreach?

ADRIAAN SCHOUT:         They have the European dream, they believe in the European dream.

JF:          Adriaan Schout is from the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.  Back in 1988 he was living with people who’d studied at the College of Europe – considered an elite finishing school for budding European bureaucrats.

AS:         If you were the son of a diplomat, and you speak five languages and you’ve lived in several other countries, then it’s easy to believe in the European dream.

JF:          What’s that vision that they’ve had that they’ve signed up to heart and soul?

AS:         It’s about fiscal union, it’s about a political union, it’s about an economic union, it’s about the Parliament is being a true parliament that appoints a government and that has a sizeable EU budget. But all of that goes at the expense of member states.

JF:          As we’ve heard, around this time, people with this expansive dream of Europe were in the driving seat in Brussels.

AS:         We started to realise that the EU was more than just a market, but we didn’t know what it quite was, what it was going to be.  It was an abstract discussion, but it became clear with a remark by Jacques Delors.

JACQUES DELORS:          (speaking French)

AS:         That 80% of policies would be formulated at EU level.  And I think that remark really woke up and to European feelings, or at least Eurosceptic feelings that . . . ‘Hey, this is going too fast – that means we can more or less close our own Parliament and the EU will become a government’ so that remark was a bit the turning point.

JF:          Adriaan Schout says it started to become clear just how much political spillover, Jacques Delors’s vision of Europe was going to involve.

AS:         All sorts of policies came in, all kinds of areas, so you could see around 1990, you s— could see the resistance also in the public administration growing, of all these new proposals, are they really necessary?

JF:          There was just a sense almost of the paper piling up too fast on the desks?

AS:         Oh yes.

(music)

JF:          These concerns began to gain more traction with the public, as Europe move towards monetary union and the single currency.

AS:         You could see a dip in popularity of the EU, and, let me stress, that is not just only in the Netherlands but also in, for example, France and Germany, because while the popularity of the EU was going down, the integration process just continued with the momentum that it had.

JF:          The Maastricht treaty was narrowly rejected in a referendum in Denmark, and only just approved in a referendum in France. And what do you think was the fundamental difference between the vision of the European Commission, where they were taking Europe, and the people who were opposed or even tepidly in favour of?

AS:         Well, the first step was the enormous widening of the policy areas, then the introduction of the euro, and then subsequently the widening of the number of member states that happened from the first 10 Eastern European countries and then later some more joined, and then the final blow came when it became clear that the euro was much more than just a symbol and a coin.

JF:          We’ve moved fairly swiftly through a lot of history there, but essentially, Adriaan Schout is talking about the pattern we identified earlier: the move from economic to more and more political integration, and particularly in difficult times, more and more people becoming concerned about the loss of sovereignty that this entails.  The extent of public opposition to further EU integration became particularly clear in 2005 when moves to adopt European Constitution were rejected by French and Dutch voters.

VOX POP FEMALE:          To much power is going to the minster of that little countries like Holland.

VOX POP MALE:                             It’s the wrong referendum, I vote against.

VOX POP FEMALE 2:       They never asked us anything, and we don’t have time to read all the 350 pages.

AS:         It was an attempt to make the EU more simple, in a way, by having clear, identifiable structures.  But these things, they just . . . were not supported in the Netherlands, ‘We don’t want European president, we don’t want European flag, we don’t want a European hymn’ and that still is the tension that we now see in Europe.  It was vetoed in 2005, but we’re actually still on this trajectory of more and more Europe.

(music)

JF:          As the European project has faced crisis after crisis over the past ten years, over the constitution, the euro, immigration, this key question has emerged again and again.  Are these crises caused or made worse by Europe travelling too far down the road of political integration? Or do you European nations need to bite the bullet and give up more sovereignty to make political integration work?

FEMALE ANNOUNCER:   Part four: Where to now?

NIKOLAUS BLOME:         My name is Nikolaus Blome, I’m the deputy editor of Bild, which is the biggest daily in Europe.

JF:          Meet our fourth expert witness, a man with his finger on the pulse of popular opinion in Europe’s most powerful country – Germany.

NB:        The euro is in dire condition, maybe it’s the worst (word unclear, ‘phase’ or ‘face’?) of the European integration ever witnessed.  It’s a multitude of crises, starting from the debt crisis, from the euro crisis, erm . . . Ukraine, refugees, but there are crises coming from within too. We’ve seen some sort of renaissance of nationalism.  So, all in all, it’s not in good shape.

JF:          And where do these crises leave the European dream?

NB:        The narrative we had over decades, all about preventing war in Europe.  That one is mission accomplished, definitely, so well it’s  . . . some sort of a problem, if you have success, what is your next story, what is your next project?

JF:          Nikolaus Blome says finding that next project is complicated by the fact that the low hanging fruit: politically uncontroversial stuff like lowering trade barriers has already been picked.

NB:        Member states, all over the years and decades, have given away a lot of their sovereignty already. And now you’re like coming to the very hot . . . issues of defence, taxes, domestic security. And so that’s, obviously, it’s more difficult to hand that part of sovereignty over to Brussels than it has been about car parts or  . . . cucumbers. And erm . . . I am not astonished about having a fierce debate on that.

JF:          And do you think there is still a fundamental belief amongst Europeans that there are some things that are done better, you know, together as Europeans?

NB:        That belief is shrinking – they don’t buy the dream, if you want, anymore.

JF:          This June, Europe will get a clear sign whether some of its inhabitants buy the dream, when the UK votes on whether or not to remain in the EU.

NB:        Already the campaign is setting some standards for future debates like this in other countries.  And if the United Kingdom steps out, this might trigger similar things in Austria, in Belgium and the Netherlands, whatever.

JF:          So, if Britain leaves – known as Brexit – what would happen to the idea of closer political integration?

NB:        I think if Brexit will happen, the next day some few member countries, Germany and France maybe will do something in terms of more integration, just to show to everybody that the European thing is still alive, but it’s going to be difficult to have more than six or even five member states to be part of that new phase of integration.

JF:          If Britain does vote to stay in, so there’s no Brexit, do you think that, that new phase of integration will still happen, is there this sense that there’s these five or six core countries that are going to keep moving ahead with the kind of broader project?

NB:        No, I don’t think so.  If Brexit does not happen, they will try to consolidate what they have, and they will let pass like, five years, before trying to renegotiate the whole thing.

JF:          Do you think even in five years’ time it might be possible to get all 28 member states heading down the same road at the same speed?

NB:        (two second pause) No not at all. There might be some . . . different, multispeed Europe, that’s fine, that’s in the treaties already, but still it’s getting more and more obligated to have decent relations between those in the faster pool and those staying out of that deeper-integrated pool of member states.

JF:          It’s a tricky balancing act.  Enough flexibility to address the concerns of those who think Europe is going too far, too fast, but not so much flexibility that a common project ceases to make sense.  And it’s even trickier to pull off in the heat of multiple crises.

NB:        Hopefully, in like, five years’ time, there’s no longer a refugee crisis, there has been some settlement with Greece, there’s more growth, and the European Union, somehow consolidated and gone through all those crises, might be able to take a new breath, and to start again.

(music)

JF:          So what happened to the European dream? We’re a long way from where we started – peace and prosperity achieved through economic cooperation.  Under Jacques Delors, political integration developed a momentum of its own, and since then the EU has found itself increasingly out of favour and under siege.  But the idea that what’s needed now is a pragmatic response after a time of crisis – that’s something that might feel very familiar to Europe’s founding fathers.